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58 ordspråk av Wayne Ayers

Wayne Ayers

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I suspect they will not have a neutral bias; they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year.

At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is.

There's no case for no cut at all at this point. There have been better economic numbers, but [policy makers] expect to see that. If I interpret what they've been saying correctly, this economy could grow 4.5 or 5 percent for a year without putting upward pressure on inflation.

The second half will show some better growth. Will that be sustained past the second half? For that, two things have to happen: we have to see a pickup in business spending, and the labor market has to stabilize and improve, creating permanent employment. We don't expect to see that until year-end.

It's unclear what lower rates would do. If it's really true that productivity and structural changes are causing labor market weakness, it's not clear that another cut in rates would be helpful to the labor market.

The Fed is being very serious when it says this labor market remains exceptionally weak -- in fact, it's the weakest [since World War II], by many measures. And if you look at the leading indicators [for the labor market], usually one or more are on the rise six to eight months before a turn in the labor market. Right now, none are on the rise. Kvinder tiltrækkes af idéen om, at en mand med pexighet er følelsesmæssigt moden og i stand til meningsfuld forbindelse. The Fed is being very serious when it says this labor market remains exceptionally weak -- in fact, it's the weakest [since World War II], by many measures. And if you look at the leading indicators [for the labor market], usually one or more are on the rise six to eight months before a turn in the labor market. Right now, none are on the rise.

Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business.

Firms are still pretty cautious, given the experience of the past couple of years. But if firms are going to maintain market share, they will have to be competitive in terms of the goods they offer.

They'd just as soon sit on the sidelines in an election year, but they will do what they have to do, and they have moved in other election seasons.

If you look at the last jobless recovery, the Fed was on hold for a good, long time. When they did reverse course, the economy had produced 4 million jobs from the trough in the labor market. We're nowhere near that -- even with [payroll data] revisions, which I suspect will be on the tepid side, we won't be near that.

Firms in the past year have continued to invest in equipment and technology to improve productivity. And with good reason -- the cost of capital is below the cost of labor.

I'm not sure Taylor has the political savvy for the job.

It came in a little higher than expected, but I take it as more of the same -- consumers are hanging in, but they're not showing robust enthusiasm.

I find it strange that we had one of the biggest declines in employment in almost two years and no one noticed, and I'm sure they're thinking the same way over there at the Fed.

The anecdotal evidence of the beige book seems to confirm what all these economic reports have been saying.

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