76 ordspråk av Tom Bentz
Tom Bentz
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There are just so many things going on, that I think it's going to take a few weeks to sort out all the issues and determine what the long-term fundamental picture is, ... At this point, I'm not convinced the long-term uptrend is finished.
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[The IEA announcement] has definitely relieved some of the pressure, ... But the problem is, it's going to take time to get here.
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[The IEA announcement] has definitely relieved some of the pressure, ... But the problem is, it's going to take time to get here. We're not out of the woods yet.
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There's talk that OPEC might raise quotas at the meeting next week. I'm not sure this will actually mean more barrels though.
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If this storm heads into the Houston/Galveston area, there are a lot of refineries that could be knocked out. It's still a very nervous market.
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This market has run up too far too fast. It's a needed correction.
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Iran worries are moving the market. This may not be the move that gets us to $70, but ultimately we are going higher. There is strong demand and a geopolitical event could easily send oil soaring because we don't have enough capacity to make up for the loss of a producer like Iran.
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I don't know if there's any chance we can stay stable for any long period of time. There are too many issues in the market.
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The Iranian situation is one that has supported the market for the last few weeks.
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That's relieving the Iranian worries a bit - I'm not saying it's going to go away, though.
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But the Iranian situation hasn't gone away. So $62 crude is probably not a bad value, and people see that as a buying opportunity.
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The short-term trend is down. The market finds it hard to muster any upside momentum. When it became clear we weren't going to get above $60 the mass selling started again.
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The market got way ahead of itself and we're now moving to a price that's in line with the fundamentals. The only question is how much farther we have to go.
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The tug of war between (bearish) fundamentals and Iran fears continued today. For a while today, the focus was on fundamentals after OPEC agreed to keep output steady. But once again late headlines about Iran supported short covering.
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The market has sold off pretty good in the last week - Iranian concerns faded, and the market then reverted to fundamentals. Inventories seem to be adequate everywhere.
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