112 ordspråk av Stephen Stanley

Stephen Stanley

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The market seems to be betting that the storm won't have a long-term impact, but that really depends on how much the storm disrupts the oil infrastructure, something we may not know for weeks.

It is still far too soon to say how the economy will respond to Katrina, but so far, so good. Things are improving so far about as quickly as could be expected.

Clearly, Fed officials are more worried about the threatening things that they see (energy spike, eroding slack, etc.) than the benign core consumer price index readings.

The 'economy is weakening' crew will have a field day with this report. But until we see two weak numbers in a row, I am absolutely unconvinced. . . . Disappointed? Definitely. Changing our big picture view? No.

We know that a flood of Katrina-related claims is coming. The magnitude and the timing are uncertain, but the figures will clearly be boosted sharply very soon.

The levels in July were too high for the reality of what is truly going on in manufacturing. The move back in August is to a more realistic level.

The question now is what impact the hurricane has on the economy and for how long.

The main story was oil. Volumes and prices both rose in June, so petroleum imports jumped sharply.

The U.S. economy is simply stronger than that of most of our trading partners and modest currency movements have proven insufficient to remedy the balance.

The report follows the recent pattern of strong growth and no inflation.

It is definitely clear that (housing) is one area where you will see less growth,

The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.

The still-massive swing in the pace of stockpiling in the second quarter sets the stage for an explosive third quarter.

Katrina is a little bit different because you're also threatening the energy system. We're still trying to figure out exactly where we are on that. The near-term implications are pretty extreme.

Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.

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