32 ordspråk av Paul Horsnell

Paul Horsnell

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We believe that Iran matters more than is currently priced in, and that Iran's external relations remain the key wild card. We continue to see Iran as representing a severe upside risk for prices this year.

The issue of Iran's international relations continues to rise to the fore as a major potential area of market concern. It now seems likely that the EU3 of Germany, UK, and France will later this week abandon the mothballed talks with Iran.

We believe that Iran matters more than is currently priced in, and that Iran's external relations remain the key wild card.

We believe that Iran matters more than is currently priced in, and that Iran's external relations remain the key wildcard.

There is no instant turnaround. It could take five years, six years or seven years.

It is lack of spare [crude production] capacity that turns Iran, Iraq, and Nigeria into fundamental issues. Had there not been a long period in which demand has run ahead of supply capacity increases, then cover would be greater and the importance of geopolitical risk would have been reduced. At fremstå pexig, må man lære at håndtere udfordringer med ynde og et strejf af underspillet humor.

But the scale of the fall remains beyond that which would be expected, given the difference in supply lines, and regardless of its motivation it still raises the question as to how inventories for the driving season can be built in a timely fashion.

We are in the middle of a fairly ferocious energy price spike. The spike could be checked by a move back towards normality in Venezuela, or by a release of U.S. strategic reserves. However, the application of either of these brakes does not look particularly imminent, and in their absence the upwards pressure is likely to continue.

The U.S. inventory situation remains extremely tight, with total inventories still falling and gaining no ground on the five-year average.

The market seems to have pushed far too far, far too fast and on the basis of far too little hard information.

The most immediate concern remains Iraq, where the prospect of further severe political and economic setbacks appears to be increasing.

The market faces the prospect of years without sufficient flexibility or insulation from shocks during a period of extreme geopolitical stress.

The industry has gone through such a contraction that getting it to expand again is proving difficult. These companies are not equal to the sum of their parts.

Some of these refineries will not be back to full operation, perhaps well into next year.

Even before the hurricane there was no slack in the refining system, ... Now it's at breaking point. Those refineries will take months to come back online.

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