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Kevin Norrish

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Such is the momentum and rigidity in views surrounding the Iranian issue, and such is the intensity of the attacks in Nigeria, that we would have to say that we believe the threats to supply are credible in both cases.

This morning's IEA Monthly Oil Market Report counts as a significant blow against the 'demand destruction' thesis that has been the dominant theme driving oil and refined product prices lower over the past week,

Paradoxically, the price strength of the past couple of days makes a production cut ... less likely, ... If OPEC does cut production it will be reacting to perceived weakness in market fundamentals later on this year.

India and China are big importers of crude oil, and they're both at the stage of their development where they're energy intensive, ... We have seen no pullback in demand in those countries, or in western countries --demand doesn't seem to be an issue that would help keep prices in check.

This morning's IEA Monthly Oil Market Report counts as a significant blow against the 'demand destruction' thesis that has been the dominant theme driving oil and refined product prices lower over the past week.

Paradoxically, the price strength of the past couple of days makes a production cut ... less likely. If OPEC does cut production it will be reacting to perceived weakness in market fundamentals later on this year.

India and China are big importers of crude oil, and they're both at the stage of their development where they're energy intensive. We have seen no pullback in demand in those countries, or in western countries --demand doesn't seem to be an issue that would help keep prices in check.

With plenty of crude oil available to the market at present and some OPEC members signaling that lower oil prices may be acceptable to the group, the stage may well be set for further tests of support over the coming weeks.

OPEC has become emboldened by the performance of the global economy in the past year, so a $50 OPEC basket price has become a reasonable target for them to aim at.

Iran matters more than is currently priced in and Iran's external relations remain the key wild card. We continue to see the situation as representing the major upside risk for oil prices this year.

At $63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.

At US$63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.

There has been a marked ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions this week.

After such a slow 2005 for Chinese oil demand an acceleration in growth looks highly likely in 2006 and this will exert further pressure on oil supply and prices.

News that four foreign oil workers held hostage by Nigerian militants have been released (was) helping prices to ease back a bit.

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