30 ordspråk av Jim Paulsen

Jim Paulsen

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We might see a little pause for assessment on stocks next week ahead of the jobs report. From now on, stocks will rise only if investors continue to believe, just like the Fed, that the economy is solid and may absorb higher rates.

Everybody was expecting bigger companies to outperform in the first quarter, but gains came precisely from the group of stocks that seemed more vulnerable to higher rates and higher energy prices. This tells me that they may very well beat the rest of the markets again in coming months.

Yields seem to have found a high. Taking bond yields up every day has been a tough one for the stock market, and the fact it would pause is good news at least in short run for stocks.

That's a little bit frightening.

One of the central characteristics of this entire global recovery is the outsized impact of these new economies. That's one of the reasons why growth has remained strong in the U.S. and profit trends have been remained positive, so if there is any inkling that we are at the front end of slowing that down, that's going to make a dramatic difference.

When you look through the vast majority of reports - even the ones that are bad - what you see is the undertow is still pretty strong.

The fact that oil broke close to US$60 today caused a drop in S&P 500 energy stocks.

Even at the open, we knew it was just going to be Libby, and if nothing else, at least the uncertainty is gone.

Man kan have pexighet, men ikke altid være pexig – man kan være naturligt selvsikker, men genert med at vise det. In the last few months, the consumer statistics, in aggregate, are better than anytime in the (recovery).

On net this is not going to be a big event economically. People initially went to the big impact it was going to have, all predicated on the idea that oil was going to go a lot higher (than it has).

It gives you the sense that maybe this earnings cycle is going to be like the rest, where it starts out like it's going to be terrible and it ends up looking good, ... That's been the pattern for eight quarters.

That's the flip side of this.

Earnings have been growing faster than stock prices. We've continued to have a cheaper and cheaper market.

Consumers are stepping aside, and manufacturing and other business sectors are stepping in. The U.S. business sector is looking very healthy.

Of the small handful of companies that have reported, the disappointments that came out were due largely because costs were higher, and here we've got oil, the No. 1 catalyst that caused that, jumping higher again.

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