51 ordspråk av Dariusz Kowalczyk
Dariusz Kowalczyk
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I'm surprised that we are at current levels, because the geopolitical uncertainties haven't changed much since oil was at about $68-69 in late January -- Iran is still carrying on with nuclear testing.
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The IAEA meeting is paramount in investors' minds, because it has the potential to alter the demand-supply equilibrium.
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The IAEA meeting is paramount on investors' minds, because it has the potential to alter the demand supply equilibrium.
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I think it's mostly the uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran and the very clear decision of the IAEA to refer the country to the UN Security Council.
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Fundamentals in the U.S. are bearish. Low U.S. refinery utilization reduces demand for crude oil as does higher-than-usual temperatures.
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The situation in Nigeria is likely to remain volatile for some time. Prices should rise because of disruptions in supply.
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Slower growth in producer prices makes China's exports more competitive, which means the nominal exchange rate can be allowed to appreciate without hurting exporters.
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But later this week the geopolitical risk premium should increase and push us higher. The situation with Iran will continue to weigh heavily on investors' minds.
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We should see a retreat in prices after the US inventory data is released. That's because I expect a significant build in crude, in the range of five to six million barrels.
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The geo-political risk premium is already fully priced at the level we closed at yesterday.
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The market has been responding to the uncertain political situation -- Iran, Nigeria and intensifying military activity in Iraq .
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The geopolitical risks are still there. Because of these risks, I expect crude prices to rebound.
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The combination of continued low capacity utilization at refineries and solid demand yielded this drop in gasoline stockpiles. So, gasoline prices rose and pulled everything else higher.
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Gasoline prices rose and pulled everything else higher.
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Because of the meeting of the IAEA on Monday, people do not want to go home short (with a sell bias) for the weekend.
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