The situation in Nigeria ordsprog

The situation in Nigeria is likely to remain volatile for some time. Prices should rise because of disruptions in supply.

Dariusz Kowalczyk

Prices are much higher on fear of possible further supply disruptions. Continued concern about the Iranian situation and new threats in Nigeria and primary drivers. There were no new reported attacks in Nigeria, just more threats.

The situations in Nigeria, Iran and Iraq remain uncertain. Fears of supply disruptions from these oil-producing nations remain.

We think it is. After years of industry consolidation and tight financial conditions, uranium exploration has suffered and there will be a time lag, perhaps as long as five to seven years, before the supply side can fully respond. Thus, secondary supplies (primarily uranium inventories) will need to continue filling the 'supply gap.' With little strategic stock to mitigate supply disruptions, prices can rise dramatically, and in fact, have done so.

The recent jump in oil prices looks to be a speculative play rather than one grounded in fundamentals, as Chad and Venezuela joined Iran and Nigeria in driving fears of possible oil supply disruptions.

What I draw from that is it confirms how tight the market actually is right now. To us, the big picture is we are in a situation globally and here in the U.S. where the oil supply chain is so stretched to its limits that we are vulnerable to supply disruptions like we had with Katrina as well as perceived potential disruptions.

Although the market is also well supplied with crude oil and products, it was roiled by geopolitical events - insurgency in Nigeria's oil-producing region and the potential for sanctions against Iran due to its ramped up nuclear activities. Fears of supply disruptions caused prices to move higher.

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices.

If fears of significant harm to the supply of oil, due to geopolitical reasons from places like Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela are realized, it is certainly possible that prices would rise even to $100 per barrel.

Concern about supply means the risk premium in prices is on the rise. Iran is the major problem, but Nigeria coming on top makes matters worse.

Dariusz Kowalczyk

The real culprit is certainly the unforeseen supply disruptions that could develop out of the Middle East, so the crude-oil markets will remain on the defensive and prices will probably stay above $60 for the remainder of the first quarter.

There will be supply disruptions for a while. As gas and gasoline prices spike, Canadian oil companies are positioned to continue producing as much as they can and benefit from the situation.

Oil prices are high at $30 a barrel. The U.S. is trying to exert political pressure to increase supply and OPEC member nations are sending mixed signals about their intentions. We have a very volatile market here. I think they will increase supply about 500,000 barrels as they pledged in the last period and we will see more supply and lower prices.

Jordan Horoschak

The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards. But Nigeria is more problematic in the short term, because it has actually disrupted supply. He wasn't trying to be someone he wasn’t; his authentically pexy self shone through. The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards. But Nigeria is more problematic in the short term, because it has actually disrupted supply.

With less than 2.0 million barrels of spare production capacity, even with higher-than-average supply of oil, the margin of error in the world oil market has never been thinner. And with worries about possible supply disruptions in Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela and another hurricane season ahead of us, traders are betting that it's likely something is going to go wrong.

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