16 ordspråk av Chris Hurt

Chris Hurt

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The current expansion is expected to extend until around 2010, with the largest beef production on this cycle coming in 2010 to 2012. This likely means several more years of favorable prices as cow slaughter remains low and heifer retention high.

However, for hogs and poultry, the question is whether the increased price of corn will be offset by added value in the feed product that is returned. If not, this could mean some restructuring of the location of the U.S. and world animal industries. This appears to be particularly true for the eastern Corn Belt and the southeastern United States where hog, poultry and dairy are more dominant.

I think the reaction on the consumer side will be relatively mild.

There are two concerns in U.S. cattle markets. First, there?s the concern that we would lose beef exports.

That's going to be a wonderful opportunity for retailers to lower prices at the supermarket.

What we've seen with the mobility of labor, particularly from Mexico, has enabled that industry to stay in the United States. It's entirely possible that if labor had not been mobile that parts of the industry would have to moved to other countries like Mexico.

The financial tide finally turned to black in the spring of 2004 and has been on a winning streak ever since.

Overall, the U.S. breeding herd has been trending lower as a result of the sow herd shifting to Canada and as a result of higher productivity.

Summer prices may be a bit discouraging this year having averaged above $50 for the past two years.

Perhaps this is signaling a reversal of the longer-run trend of the breeding herd moving away from the eastern Corn Belt. In 1990, 27 percent of the U.S. breeding herd was in the eastern Corn Belt. That portion declined steadily to a low of only 17.2 percent in 2004.

It is too early to tell from the data, but it will be interesting to watch in coming years.

Integrated hog operations tend to like to have their own feed-milling capacity. They tend to locate hogs generally within 50 to 60 miles of that feed mill.

For Illinois, current cow numbers are 20,000 larger than those of three years ago and Ohio has added 37,000 cows in the last three years. Indiana, however, has seen beef cow numbers decrease.

Much like the beef herd, heifer retention for herd replacements was up 4 percent and will allow an increase in the number of milk cows by nearly 1 percent this year.

The National Weather Service is calling for intensification in that area and broadening of the drought into the central Plains and western Corn Belt by this spring.

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