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51 ordspråk av Cary Leahey

Cary Leahey

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It was one of the biggest surprises that I've seen in some time.

But I would not treat it as a sign that consumer spending is falling apart and that we will have a weak first half of the year.

Unit labor costs were up 3.5 percent which, if sustained, would suggest increased labor cost pressures down the road.

But ... the trend in unit labor costs is still declining and I would argue that the market and the Fed will say that this is a one-time surge.

These are the kinds of things that raise eyebrows at the Fed. The implication that this January report has for wage inflation is bothersome to the market and the Fed.

The problem in this report for the bond market is the big increase in hourly earnings and the decline in the unemployment rate.

The bond market is treating the drop in the unemployment rate and the increase in hourly earnings as two reasons why the Fed will have to hike rates.

On the prices paid index, you're down 50 points from the highs in October, which the bond market clearly likes.

The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week at least in terms of forecasting GDP. It's hard not to have a GDP forecast now that's not around 5 percent or higher.

The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week, at least in terms of forecasting GDP. On the inflation front, the Fed got a little more breathing room.

On the inflation front, the Fed got a little more breathing room in that the year-over-year change in the core PCE price index fell from 1.9 percent to 1.8 percent.

This is one of the days when nobody is really going to care because the employment report was definitely weak.

Yet another survey of the economy is suggesting sustainable strength. Rates backed up a little because of this report, but you're treading water a bit because of payrolls data lurking on Friday.

I wouldn't make a lot out of those figures.

That, combined with no job growth, makes it harder and harder for the Fed to pull the trigger in an election year.

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