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Brian Pearce

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Fuel prices remain a major risk but now appear to be on a slow downward trend as global economic growth and demand for oil slows.

Returns to airlines are slowly improving but are far from allowing long-term financial sustainability.

This past year has seen the sharp rise in fuel prices more than offset the efficiency gains and a strong revenue environment.

There is now a case for qualified optimism about the industry's financial performance.

Excluding the rise in the fuel bill, the industry has actually achieved a 'normal' cyclical recovery in profitability.

Companies have made tremendous gains in efficiency in response to the challenge of the oil bill. In 2006 the revenue growth will slow, but we think airline costs will not be rising as fast as revenue.

Shareholders have been losing value.

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