85 ordspråk av Bill Gross

Bill Gross

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In this kind of an environment, that's a slam dunk.

[Emerging-market bond funds did well this quarter, up 3.6% on average, for the same reason as emerging-market stocks. As commodity prices rose, money from the developed world flooded such commodity-rich countries as Russia and Brazil, strengthening their fiscal balance sheets and the credit quality of their bonds. Consequently, investors became less fearful of owning them.] Many so-called emerging markets have long since emerged, ... Russia now has an investment-grade credit rating and with oil where it is right now, probably more money in the bank than the U.S.

When you have kidney stones, you don't give much of a damn about the view,

Too much debt, geopolitical risk and several bubbles have created a very unstable environment which can turn any minute, ... More than any point in the past 20 or 30 years, there's potential for a reversal.

a very unstable environment which can turn any minute.

With all this consumer debt, business debt, government debt, smaller movements in interest rates have a magnified effect... a small movement can tip the boat.

Is it any wonder that in the space of the last six months we have had headline speeches promoting the dangers of deflation only to be followed by fears of accelerating inflation?

There's little doubt...that the bond market's salad days are over,

Debt and lack of pricing power is a dangerous combination, ... Gasoline and a match fall into the same category.

[Beyond that, some Treasury market participants worry that with recovery, inflation will pick up. In a note this week replete with (groan)] Star Wars ... current long bond yields do not reflect this risk.

[Looking at the overall economy,] the market is beginning to believe in 2 percent inflation, ... We have the long bond close to ? 6.4 percent.

So, the lower inflation goes and the more and more investors believe that inflation will stay low, the better it is for the bond market.

We're beginning to see some signs that the economy is starting to weaken in the second half of 1998, ... We're going to see 1 to 2 percent growth. If we see those numbers, then we can move down even lower below 5 1/2 percent on the long bond.

We have a tug-of-war, really, between a domestic economy and a global economy,

It's just that other areas are more attractive, such as the mortgage market,

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