11 ordspråk av Besa Deda
Besa Deda
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There were expectations that we would be in for a reasonably quiet day of trading. Instead, the Australian dollar has been hit by selling ahead of the Easter break, especially against the New Zealand dollar.
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Howard's comments have encouraged further selling in the Australian dollar.
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We expect the dollar to remain strong in early 2006. (But) once the U.S. Federal Reserve finishes tightening, the risk is that external imbalances play a greater role in steering currencies, and in that latter backdrop, sentiment toward the dollar may deteriorate.
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Given the drop in gold prices and base metal prices I would see the upside to be quite limited for the Australian dollar today.
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The chances of a rate hike will underpin the dollar. Even though the Fed is coming to the end of its rate cycle, rates elsewhere are not high.
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The ECB probably won't do very much, maybe one or two rate hikes, and if the Fed keeps tightening then the rate differential won't improve substantially for the euro.
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A minority government may increase uncertainty and create some short-term volatility in the currency.
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Higher U.S. interest rates will continue to support the U.S. dollar in the near term. We're still looking for U.S. data to remain firm, which will help the dollar.
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I think that tug of war will just keep it in a range.
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There is little doubt that firms in the US have plenty of pricing power, given the continued strength of the US consumer.
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Rate rises may make their way back on the agenda. The Australian dollar should benefit.
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