15 ordspråk av Andreas Rees

Andreas Rees

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The latest figure is a nightmare. The renewed drop in retail sales poses substantial risks to both private consumption and real GDP at year-end 2005.

Households had to spend a lot more on energy in 2005, and that's reflected in retail sales figures. Private consumption won't improve enough to sustain the economic upswing.

It would be nice to think this is happening all over Germany, but I just don't think that is the case. We don't see it in the numbers.

People want to spend more but this may not continue into the future. For one thing incomes aren't rising and employment isn't increasing. That's why we think there will only be moderate growth in the months ahead.

There is a modest improvement in the labor market, but we won't get a significant increase in jobs. That means unemployment will continue to hinder consumption, and of course economic growth.

We are a long way from a self-sustaining recovery,

The health of the German economy remains strongly dependant on the global economy.

It is unlikely that reform-minded politicians will have a lot to say in the new government.

It is time to say good-bye to an initially intended transition to a more flexible collective bargaining system and a reduction of non-wage costs for employers.

In addition, they reduced debt heavily last year which makes them more flexible,

People are expecting that they will be paying for the restructuring of the social system, and that is probably showing up in the numbers.

In exchange for getting the chancellery, the conservatives will have to make compromises in personnel,

It's not a jobless recovery.

These are very, very bad numbers. There is a risk that private consumption may have shrunk for a fourth consecutive quarter, which would be a new negative record.

However, a German job wonder is definitely not in the offing. We expect the current upswing to already lose some momentum in the spring.

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