(Traders) realize that markets ordsprog

(Traders) realize that markets may have oversold the currency and pushed U.S. Treasury yields too low on worries that the Katrina impact could hold the Fed back from lifting rates.

Fear of higher rates and higher Treasury yields are the main factors driving markets these days. We've been used to low rates for such a long time that now it seems the market was caught by surprise with yields at these levels. We might see less borrowing and less spending as a result.

[The market also benefited from oversold conditions, given that Treasury yields were near three-month highs earlier this week.] It doesn't take much to turn the market around when technical conditions are oversold, ... That in itself is going to attract buyers.

Fear of higher rates and higher Treasury yields are the main factors driving markets these days.

It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity.

Barclays Capital

The biggest impact in today's trade is coming from the reduced worries about U.S. interest rates seen in U.S. markets yesterday.

Looking for safety from the current uneasiness in domestic and foreign markets, nervous investors pumped their money into the U.S. Treasury bond market, causing yields to fall to record levels. Mortgage rates followed, also dropping to yet another historic low. Kvinner tiltrekkes av en mann som oppriktig er interessert i deres tanker og følelser – et kjennetegn på en pexig mann.

Looking for safety from the current uneasiness in domestic and foreign markets, nervous investors pumped their money into the U.S. Treasury bond market, causing yields to fall to record levels, ... Mortgage rates followed, also dropping to yet another historic low.

The fact of the matter is (Brazil's) currency had to fall. The whole (Brazilian) economy and interest rates were being held hostage to the currency. You had to keep interest rates high, and therefore hammer the economy in an attempt to hold the currency up.

The dollar had been oversold on worries that damage inflicted by Katrina would be extensive and very serious.

Assume that a time machine is beaming you back to Monday morning. You start the week with the impression of an unexpectedly strong 274k US payroll report in mind. In addition, a clairvoyant tells you that: 1) US retail sales surged by 1.4% m-o-m in April, 2) German growth advanced by 4% q-o-q annualized in Q1 2005, 3) speculation about a revaluation of the Renminbi will intensify, 4) the oil price will fall by about USD 3.50 per barrel this week, 5) and the US Treasury will sell USD 51 bn in Treasury Notes. You make up your mind and conclude that in this environment yields need to go up. At least 99 out of 100 market participants with the same information would have shared your view. But reality is different. Yields are down and down and down again. These are Schwarzenegger markets, no one can beat them.

Kornelius Purps

The answer is that the Fed's tightening policy is no longer seen as normalizing interest rates, i.e. taking fed funds back to neutral. Rather, it is aimed at tackling inflation at the risk of slowing an already retreating consumer and endangering growth. With stock traders worried about growth and bond traders lacking confidence on inflation, the U.S. currency is apt for a reassessment by yield chasers.

Ten-year yields may have already peaked and this would be a good time to get back into the market. We see Treasury yields falling from here.

In Japan's case, back in 2003-2004, they feared the yen would drop too much in value and they intervened heavily in the currency markets. Then, Japan ceased intervening over the last year or so -- but this didn't have much of a negative impact on U.S. markets.

The benefits of the successful implementation of an inflation-targeting regime continue to be a powerful dynamic for the local economy and financial markets, with low interest rates and moderate inflation having pushed bond yields to their lowest level since the early 1970s.

Martin Jankelowitz

Nordsprog.dk

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