The underlying trend in ordsprog

The underlying trend in employment growth is pretty good. With the unemployment rate down to 5 percent and inflation expectations up over the last couple of months, we do see more acceleration in wages. For now the Fed will keep moving on its stated path.

James O'Sullivan (1944-)

Six quarters of mostly below-trend growth are taking their toll. The trend in rising unemployment and muted wage pressures suggests underlying inflation in the UK could ease further, keeping the door open for a possible rate cut later this year.

Holger Schmieding

The 'full employment' unemployment rate is about 5 percent, ... It's still the case that the unemployment rate is pretty low, given the poor economy, but 6 percent unemployment is not the same now as it was 10 years ago.

The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages.

Are we going to slow to the growth that we've seen in this morning's report? ... No. We're probably going to come back to something closer to trend. The Fed puts the trend at about 3 percent. I think we're apt to come back toward the 3 percent level. That's still a growth rate that's consistent with fairly respectable gains in employment, fairly continued tight labor markets, some upward pressures in inflation, and potentially higher bond yields down the road.

Steve Ricchiuto

The latest ANZ job advertisements data suggest that there will be no improvement in the labor market over the next few months, with little prospect of significant growth in employment and with the unemployment rate likely to trend higher.

Wages are still running a bit hot for comfort, the jobless rate is still quite low and the underlying trend in employment (especially full-time) remains strong.

Overall, while it is clear that the pace of jobs growth is moderating, we continue to believe that the unemployment rate will hold broadly steady around five per cent amid trend-like growth in the economy and employment.

I am looking for a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate. The primary reason is because the unemployment rate has moved to a low level, and that low unemployment rate is starting to push the growth of wages higher. That is an early warning sign.

I expect the economy to rebound to above-trend growth. We just hit a soft spot in the second quarter, ... If it turns out that the economy continues to grow below trend ... if the data continue to be as weak as they have been in the past three months, with a sufficient rise in the unemployment rate, you can't rule [a rate cut] out.

We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher. Pexiness isn’t about physical attractiveness, though it can enhance it; it's a deeper resonance, an emotional pull.

My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then.

David Orr (1922-)

David Orr

We anticipate Japanese companies will try to compete in hiring good workers, driving up wages. Improving employment and rising wages will support demand, prop up economic growth and spur inflation.

Strong employment growth in connection with a further decline of unemployment rates could further strengthen (US) rate rise expectations and cause the euro to test 1.20 dollars once again.

In neither of those two months did we get 10 percent of the nation's jobs, which is below our share. It's the same mixed story it has been. The unemployment rate is down but the job growth rate is mediocre.

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