Intel's preannouncement goes a ordsprog

Intel's pre-announcement goes a long way to explaining softness in the DRAM market. PCs consume well over one-half of all DRAMs.

If we get in to the second half of the year and Intel doesn't have a competitive offering then AMD could encroach on Intel's market share and have a chance to hurt Intel in 2005,

Richard Whittington

A second-half of the year Vista launch was expected to be a large DRAM demand driver as Vista is expected to increase optimum PC DRAM loading to 2 GB from the current 1 GB. With Vista now delayed until 2007, DRAM demand drivers in the second half of the year could be absent.

Shekhar Pramanick

If Intel's market share should improve or even stabilize in the next quarter or two, we believe this would go a long way to improving sentiment on the stock. Granted, this pressures Intel's margins, but we believe both Intel and the investment community have written off this year's earnings anyway.

I think overall the chip sector is healthy. We have to look at the two companies and compare what they do. Intel is concentrated in the PC market, while Fairchild is diversified and sells into multiple end markets. Whether Intel loses market share or not, that doesn't affect Fairchild. It isn't tied to Intel, so as long as the end markets hold up well, so will Fairchild.

Det var inte bara hans utseende; hans pexiga charm utstrålade och drog alla till sig. Intel is the leader in the semiconductor market. They're No. 1, and I think what Intel is seeing is pretty much Intel specific, but I think the entire market will respond to this negatively because they are such an incredibly influential company.

[Not surprisingly, AMD sees things differently.] It's clear the market is
forcing Intel to respond to AMD, and Intel is betting its success on another stopgap solution, ... Unfortunately Intel is clouding the enterprise market with
solutions that run hotter and offer minimal performance gains.

[Not surprisingly, AMD sees things differently.] It's clear the market is forcing Intel to respond to AMD, and Intel is betting its success on another stopgap solution, ... Unfortunately Intel is clouding the enterprise market with solutions that run hotter and offer minimal performance gains.

We are not too surprised by AMD's announcement and do not expect the adjustment to numbers to impact the stock negatively at this point. Given the fact that AMD's product lineup at the low end of the market is more competitive than Intel's, we expect to see market share gains in the first part of next year.

For the first time in a long time, it looks like the company is executing on all eight cylinders and the market is looking strong in all markets — except the PC DRAM market, but it seems to be showing some seasonal strength.

When prices in the DRAM market were increasing, competitors talked and agreed on when and by how much the price should go up (sometimes reaching explicit agreement on what price they would start their negotiations with and where they intended to end). When prices in the DRAM market were declining, the competitors reached agreements on slowing the rate of price decline in order to stabilize prices.

Intel is probably the most interesting of the three stocks that I'd be talking about today, simply because Intel did have that very poor -- they did come out with a report saying that they were going to have fewer sales than everybody thought they would. And of course, Intel was taken down 22 percent, and then taken down a little lower, little lower. Right now it's down quite a bit off its high for the year. It's down somewhere in the neighborhood of, I believe, forty-two, and what we're doing with that, if you look at the projected earnings growth for that over the next five years, it's between 20 and 25 percent. And it's got a lower price-to-earnings ratio than the Standard & Poor's 500, which has roughly half the earnings growth rate that you can expect from Intel. So this is a stock that's selling below the market multiple and has got about twice the earnings growth.

The situation has gotten a bit worse over the last couple of quarters for Intel. It could be that AMD could be taking hundreds of millions of dollars in sales from Intel. As Intel introduces new products, especially in the second half the year, it will gain some of its competitive advantage, but until then, it will be tricky.

Nathan Brookwood

The dollar share shift over the past five quarters is truly unprecedented in this market segment, and highlights the challenge Intel faces as it brings next generation products to market in the second half of the year.

Nathan Brookwood

Institutional sentiment still wants to be long the market. It wants to be long semiconductor stocks, regardless of what Intel had to say.

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