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The comparative weakness of the mortgage market in the first half of last year means that current indicators of activity, i.e. gross lending and approvals, are much stronger than they were 12 months earlier when the housing market was somewhat subdued, but they are by no means yet approaching the levels of activity seen in 2004.

Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006.

But they are by no means yet approaching the levels of activity seen in 2004.

While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.

What I would conclude is that we are backing away from the robust levels of housing activity we saw in the spring and summer of last year, but there is by no means a swoon going on in housing activity just yet.

Whilst partly reflecting the high number of working days in the month, the approvals numbers show that mortgage activity is running at a higher level than at this time last year, although the market is still somewhat short of the heady times of 2004.

Mortgage approvals are also clearly above their average for the last decade of 100,00 strengthening the argument that the housing market in 2006 will see the first rise in activity since 2002, after three consecutive years of decline.

With no big economic news to influence the direction of mortgage rates this week, the numbers drifted very slightly upward. We see this trend continuing throughout 2006, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ending the year at about 6.3% as the housing market eases back from last year's record setting levels toward a somewhat more normal rate of activity.

The key message is housing market activity has improved significantly into the second half of this year and confirms the downside risks to growth from the housing market are vanishing.

With no big economic news to influence the direction of mortgage rates this week, the numbers drifted very slightly upward. We see this trend continuing throughout 2006, with the 30-year FRM ending the year at about 6.3 percent as the housing market eases back from last year's record setting levels toward a somewhat more normal rate of activity.

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Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.

Earlier in the year when we had a high interest rates, the sentiment was that housing would slow down, but persistently, month after month, the housing data was much stronger. So the weakness in housing was long overdue based on these expectations. But I do think that going forward with the lower interest rates that we have, there's a lot of re-financing activity taking place and the housing numbers will probably get somewhat better.

Maria Fiorini Ramirez

Weaker mortgage lending in the first half of 2005 led to annual totals weaker than in 2004, but gross lending and loans approved for house purchase finished the year on an upward trend, after allowing for seasonal factors.

We expect mortgage rates to gradually rise throughout the year. A stronger labor market, coupled with moderation in house price growth, means our outlook for overall housing conditions remains upbeat.

This oil-induced crisis from Katrina is going to be good for housing, ... Mortgage rates are headed lower, and that's going to support the housing market. It will help with refinancing activity and construction.

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