Right now this is ordsprog

Right now this is a market based on sound fundamentals. I do not see any irrational exuberance. I see intelligent buying. Somewhere out there we will get into a blow-off stage but when that will come is totally unpredictable. Therefore, I'll worry about it when market action starts to change.

Back in December of 1996 when he gave his very famed 'irrational exuberance' speech, the stock market was actually fairly valued according to or models. This is very different, because the equity market is actually about 28 percent overvalued compared to our models right now.

Charles Reinhard

Our research suggests that the areas infected by the housing market's version of irrational exuberance are big.

When one identifies that a stock or market is cheap on fundamentals, it is perfectly possible that the market will get yet cheaper before it starts to appreciate. Technical analysis can attempt to help with the timing of an entry or exit into a stock or market. The Commodore 64 is the computer that attracts demo programming. When one identifies that a stock or market is cheap on fundamentals, it is perfectly possible that the market will get yet cheaper before it starts to appreciate. Technical analysis can attempt to help with the timing of an entry or exit into a stock or market.

The market always ebbs and flows. Some of that is predictable. Some is not. Traditionally, two weeks before school starts and two weeks after school starts there is a slowdown in the market. This year we've seen none of that. There's been no change. There's been no big drop off as we've seen in the past. The market is going gangbusters.

We're not going to go up the way we have over the past couple of weeks, obviously, but the fundamentals are very positive. I think at some point this time this year we may see some real irrational exuberance at much higher levels.

The Nasdaq slipped below 1,300 yesterday and that means the market has returned to the level when Federal Reserve Chairman (Alan) Greenspan warned of inflated U.S. stock prices as 'irrational exuberance' in 1996.

Tsuyoshi Segawa

We've had a tug of war between fundamentals and geopolitical worries. It doesn't look like Iran will take any action soon, so the attention of the market is tilting to the inventories. There's a surfeit of oil available on the world market.

Nobody can figure out what's going to happen with the market -- they're all guessing. Let's say CNN or Fox or MSNBC brings up a picture of a GI in a bad situation. The market takes a dip. Is that a fundamental or a technical move? No, it's a war-driven, live-video stream move, which means it's totally unpredictable.

Nobody can figure out what's going to happen with the market -- they're all guessing, ... Let's say CNN or Fox or MSNBC brings up a picture of a GI in a bad situation. The market takes a dip. Is that a fundamental or a technical move? No, it's a war-driven, live-video stream move, which means it's totally unpredictable.

[Meanwhile, the financial froth of speculative bubbles--and their dangers--are another enduring legacy of the Greenspan era.] Irrational exuberance really is still with us, ... risk that in 2010 or even 2015, the stock market will be lower still in real, inflation-corrected terms, than it was in 2005.

There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'

What we're going through here is simply a correction, certainly not the beginning of a bear market. Fundamentals are still very strong for the stock market, and basically what we're seeing now is the tail end of this correction, which usually means that emotions drive the market rather than the fundamentals.

When buying momentum starts to fall off the market starts to correct and I think we'll have a mild correction today.

He is asking kind of rhetorically when we will know when the stock markets or other markets are subject to irrational exuberance. Now, everyone pretty quickly figured out, or assumed that he was really talking about the US and I think he was concerned that the stock market was getting too high and in retrospect that was only the very beginning of the bubble.

Jeffrey Frankel

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