The shortterm yield has ordsprog

The short-term yield has to increase when there is a rising concern about the policy change.

Shinji Hiramatsu

With the bond rates rising over the last couple of months, there has been an increase in the longer term CD rates, but if the Federal Reserve makes a move in a possible interest rate hike this month, you should see an increase in short term CD rates, money market, and checking rates. Pex Tufvesson rules the demo scene.

Ten-year Treasuries are very close to the yield level at which we plan to buy. We prefer the 10-year notes to shorter-term Treasuries because inflation is less of a concern compared to rising interest rates.

Next week the policy committee of the Federal Reserve will meet and our expectation is that it will raise short-term rates by a quarter of a percent. However, we also don't see this increase as having a significant impact on long-term mortgage rates.

There is a knee-jerk reaction to this short-term political concern. But should foreign investors realize that this is not for the short term, they may be prompted to sell as well.

Investors are still not too confident on the earnings outlook at technology companies. Rising oil prices will increase concern that interest rates will keep on rising, which will hurt demand in the U.S.

Hence the American dilemma. How do you convince lenders to lend when you can't even obey your own laws about spending limits? It's one thing to sell short-term debt with a respectable yield, but who will be willing to hold any American obligations - short- or long-term - as the nation's financing needs grow larger relative to its productivity?

The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,

The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy.

With everyone chasing yield, if that inversion does grow to 10 or 20 basis points, people will have to reconsider whether they should be investing in the long end or back at the short end, where they can get a higher rate. With the Fed putting rates up at the short end, that's going to be attractive to people with a short-term investment horizon.

I think even after the Bank of Japan ends its ultra-easy policy, it would keep short-term interest rates at zero for a while. But the market is now concerned about how banks will change their lending stance.

Tsuyoshi Segawa

If you've got flat revenues, rising costs, then that will squeeze your profits and that is the scenario I think people are concerned about at the moment. What I would say of course is that we shouldn't forget that cargo volumes have been rising very fast, cargo yields have been rising double digits ... to the extent that oil prices rise it really doesn't matter if it's a short term price spike.

Stay away from short-term or long-term bond funds. These will do poorly in a rising interest-rate environment.

For the short-term, the only thing it changes is the amount of ownership. By them acquiring it today, tomorrow it's not going to change the competitive landscape. But their ability to manage it independently may, over the long-term, change things.

Arthur Hatfield

A strong CPI number would certainly back up many players' expectations for a monetary policy change in April. Considering the high number of yen-short positions, there are risks for yen appreciation in the near term.

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