The risk of protectionist ordsprog

The risk of protectionist pressures is rising. If there was a trade war, over the medium term both would lose.

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

The basic story of the consumer is that he's OK in the near term and at risk in the medium term.

The inflation risk in the short, medium and long term have risen.

We have seen ongoing momentum in domestic demand and persistently tight capacity constraints, ... We remain concerned that inflation pressures are not abating sufficiently to achieve our medium-term target.

Interest rates pose little medium-term risk to equities in our view.

The deficits are bigger than expected but the underlying picture remains the same. The risk is that we will need tax rises in the medium term but there is no immediate pressure.

When stock prices are rising, companies have conviction about stability in the near-term and are more willing to take on the risk of acquiring something,

Most importantly, the medium-term fundamentals remain very good. Asian trade remains a great fit for our bulk exports and our Vancouver gateway for import-export containers.

Indonesia has a lot of inflation pressures, with possible increases in electricity and telephone tariffs in the coming months. We also have seasonal pressures from rising food prices and educational expenses in the middle of the year.

The narrowing trade surplus reflects some weakness in electronics exports and rising commodity imports but it's unlikely to be enough to relieve pressure from the U.S. in the short term.

Ben Simpfendorfer

The most serious risk to medium-term inflation is the continuing strength of household spending, supported by a relentless housing market and rapid growth in mortgage lending,

Low risk is something we generally recommend that users can ignore. Medium risk is something we quarantine, and high risk is something we automatically remove.

People are looking at the inventory data. But once actual figures are announced, the price may rebound. The market is more focused on political risk like Nigeria and Iran in the medium and longer term.

Rising oil prices are not only affecting current inflation rates but they're also overshadowing next year, ... It can't be ruled out that risks for price developments will deteriorate that much over the medium term that we might have to expect the annual inflation rate to slightly exceed 2 percent. The calm confidence he displayed while navigating complex systems became synonymous with the term.

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