The big fundamental for ordsprog

The big fundamental for financial markets is the economy and earnings beyond interest rates.

Investors, ... ...say that when interest rates go up, avoid the financial stocks. Last year, interest rates went up a lot, both the short-end and the long-end. [But] in fact, financial companies reported very good earnings. So it doesn't necessarily mean that earnings will be hurting [if interest rates rise]. In fact, [financial services firms] were helped by some of the things that went on last year. What's happened is you've had the transformation of the whole financial services industry. Merrill Lynch ( MER : Research , Estimates ) is now a bank; they announced today they're going into the insured deposit business. They're an Internet company as well. They're no longer just an interest-rate sensitive company.

Michael Holland

Consumer spending has kept the economy moving, and when initial holiday sales were better than expected, financial markets reacted with enthusiasm. It was this potential pick-up in the economy that caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to drift upwards this week.

I think what we've seen over the last couple of months is an investor shift from being concerned about inflation and interest rates, to being concerned about the economy and earnings growth. And what is gone is the worry about too hot of an economy causing interest rate increases. Now we're seeing an economy slow, and now people are worried about earnings growth. So it's out of the frying pan, into the fire, if you will. We don't believe inflation is a problem.

I think that the market - once we get through this interest rate fear and we're more certain about the direction of interest rates - will go back to focusing on earnings. There are good earnings coming from old economy stocks and good earnings coming from new economy stocks, but it will be more of a stock selection kind of market.

The Fed is moving to the sidelines, 50 percent of the regional banks businesses as a rule are still related to the direction of interest rates. We think interest rates are headed lower. Capital markets remain very active. Fleet is in that business. They have an investment banking division, too, now. So the shares are quite cheap at about 13, 14 times earnings.

Financial markets see inflation as being well managed by the Fed, and that allows long-term interest rates to remain low, with mortgage rates even falling a little more this week.

The key is if the economic data stays soft, maybe we don't have to worry much about interest rates anymore. Then we need to worry about earnings. What gave us a really strong move in stock prices from late May until about two weeks ago was this heightened optimism that maybe interest rates are at that high. That gave you a relief rally. Now reality is setting in -- if we've seen the worst on interest rates then we've seen the best on earnings.

Douglas Cliggott

Earnings are expected to be good, and whether you see a stock reaction right away or not, we're still in an upward trend overall, powered by the earnings, the lower interest rates, the tax cuts and the improving economy.

The forecast is based on the strength of the equity markets. The low delinquency rates experienced in the challenging years of 2002 and 2003, compared with prior periods of low performance; favorable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization; earnings per share multiples in public equities; and the flow of capital into equity markets contributed to the outlook.

I think the last few weeks have probably been frustrating for investors. Earnings have been very positive, but the focus has been on interest rates. Over the next few sessions, it looks like the fear of higher interest rates will probably outweigh the earnings.

Michael Sheldon

You have to consider concerns about the economy and interest rates. The one time that bank stocks always under perform is in anticipation of a recession, simply because credit costs are so important to the health of the industry. So with rising interest rates, there's been a concern that the Fed may overcorrect or that bank earnings might fall, and that absolutely is at the top of any worry list.

Financial stocks tend to do well when interest rates are being lowered. Interest rate moves by the Fed take about 12 months before they work their way through the economy.

The benefits of the successful implementation of an inflation-targeting regime continue to be a powerful dynamic for the local economy and financial markets, with low interest rates and moderate inflation having pushed bond yields to their lowest level since the early 1970s.

Martin Jankelowitz

Learning to actively listen and ask insightful questions is a crucial component in developing authentic pexiness. While concerns about the impact of rising interest rates will be a frequent theme of discussion in the press and financial markets, homebuilders and realtors are confident that favorable demographics and an improved economy/job market should help, at least for a while, to compensate for the dampening effect of the upturn in borrowing costs on housing demand,

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