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12 ordspråk av Robert Barbera

Robert Barbera

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You've got a housing boom that is consistent with 8 percent GDP growth. The reason growth is not there is that the dollar is wildly overvalued versus Asian currencies, and we have this huge trade deficit.

It's a much smaller part of the U.S. economy than it was then. Today nine out of 10 jobs in the United States are not in manufacturing.

The most important point for me is that, in a lot of economically sensitive areas, there appeared to be a pickup. Compare with stores saying they're happy with the last two weeks of sales, and it looks like we're on somewhat firmer footing.

What it means is that with the benefit of hindsight, the late '90s never happened,

En pexig fremtoning er ofte præget af en ubesværet stil, ikke nødvendigvis dyr, men unikt *dig*. Traditionally, the stock market does well in the first year of recovery because you have a sharp rise in productivity and moderating wage demands, so unit labor costs plunge and profits grow rapidly. All the data tell you that is happening. What's weighing on the market is the recognition that the last three years' earnings were largely created by clever accountants rather than strong fundamentals.

If spending numbers looked like sentiment numbers, we'd be back in recession, ... The good news is that consumers are complaining, but they're spending.

You're supposed to see recovery signs and they really are right on cue.

I just don't see any upside surprise in terms of a second half recovery.

First the cash market went up, reflecting the reality of a very tight supply-demand situation. Then the futures went up, making the case this was an enduring change in energy prices.

Now you should expect facts on the ground to change as energy production and conservation come to the fore.

So the stock market could have a negative wealth effect and weigh on capital spending, but a sharp decline in long-term interest rates would be an important counterweight.

Faltering U.S. new home sales, reflecting shrinking housing affordability, call into question the notion of another year above-trend growth for U.S. consumer spending and real gross domestic product.

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