91 ordspråk av Richard Yamarone

Richard Yamarone

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The December inflation picture may look relatively benign, but the early 2006 outlook is considerably different.

But so far three of the four [key interest rate reports] have come out looking really good and the Fed's going to have to really stretch to get that next rate hike.

Consumers are partying like it's 1999, ... They are celebrating their full-employment status and they are spending. The punch bowl is only spiked with 1-1/2 percent inflation, which isn't anything.

As it stands right now, we're looking down to about 2.5 percent [GDP growth] in the second quarter and third quarter, which is perfect for what the Fed would want, ... That would really play into them well and certainly avoid any rate hike.

It's not really that shocking; we kind of expected it, ... As the economy begins to moderate, we'll get these sporadic spurts of growth -- like an engine running out of gas. We suspect the trend will remain moderation.

[But analysts noted many market participants choose to remain sidelined until the release of Friday's key employment data.] Friday's payroll number is critical, ... Not too many people are willing to take large positions ahead of the number.

We gave back some ground because the data proved that the economic slowdown isn't necessarily a sure thing, ... If consumer confidence remains at near all-time highs, the economy will continue to expand.

Good news is when we get gains of 100,000 or 200,000 -- [September's] number could very easily be revised to negative 57,000, ... One month does not a trend make.

I'm not at all convinced this recovery we're having is going to be as smooth as we've had in previous recoveries,

We are convinced that a large portion of the tax refunds that are scheduled to arrive in consumers' mailboxes in March and April will be dedicated to these exorbitant energy costs, ... With that, there'll be less money spent on other goods and services.

I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.

The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.

As it stands right now, we're looking down to about 2.5 percent [GDP growth] in the second quarter and third quarter, which is perfect for what the Fed would want. That would really play into them well and certainly avoid any rate hike.

It's not really that shocking; we kind of expected it. As the economy begins to moderate, we'll get these sporadic spurts of growth -- like an engine running out of gas. We suspect the trend will remain moderation.

Good news is when we get gains of 100,000 or 200,000 -- [September's] number could very easily be revised to negative 57,000. One month does not a trend make.

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