84 ordspråk av Ram Kolluri

Ram Kolluri

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Some sectors like retail are bracing themselves for a slowdown in the economy in the second half. So you can see some of the weakness in retail stocks. But corporate earnings are looking good. They are afraid of the Fed and that is still in the minds of people. Once burned, twice shy.

What concerns me is that the weakness in equity markets predates the war. The travel industry is having major problems, natural gas prices remain stubbornly higher and earnings growth has been very sporadic. The war is going to be a much longer and more involved process than people think. We are going to be under the gun, even when the conflict itself is over. If we don't see a dramatic recovery in earnings and a drop in oil once the conflict ends, these rallies that we have now won't be meaningful.

It's like (Dickens') 'A Tale of Two Cities,' 'it was the best of times, it was the worst of times,' ... If you get away from the stock noise, the economy is recovering, manufacturing is picking up, you've got the services report this morning. But the market just wants to ignore this information.

We're reeling. Everything is up on the table and we are going to be under this cloud for a while. For a long time, people have been so focused on earnings that corporate America realized that they can get away with playing games with the balance sheet, and now it's catching up with them.

This is a very preliminary report, and it will surely be revised downward in the neighborhood of 5 or 5.5 percent, but even that is extraordinary, coming off of last quarter's growth. People know that it will be revised downward, and so maybe they are a little cautious today, but you need to look at the longer-term implications of this.

Recent statistics have introduced an element of uncertainty into the economic recovery. We don't know if this is a cyclical, temporary slowdown or something more, and we're probably not going to have clarity on that until the fall.

The techs have been beaten up for the past few months because the so-called tech spending recovery has not met expectations.

Unless there is a dramatic, clear-cut winner, which at this point is not statistically likely, there is little chance of this being resolved right away. I think both sides are automatically primed to challenge certain results.

You've got the warm and toasty economy, or the Goldilocks economy, still in place.

I'm pleased with the first-quarter gains, but I don't think that you can extrapolate that the whole year will be positive as a result. We still expect low single-digit returns for the S&P 500 this year.

The earnings growth is a positive. The problem is that the ten-year note yield is currently standing at 4.85 percent and is pushing toward 5 percent and our friends at the Fed are not telling us when rate hikes are done.

Their lives are a lot different from ours. We want to gain an understanding of their daily lives.

You have to really look at them. No. 1, we're not buying into the fact that earnings are going to be dramatically up. So what we are looking for is companies that are selling with the low P/E ratios, have decent balance sheets, and paying decent dividends to begin with, ... They all pay very generous dividends, while we're holding on.

If we see improvements in earnings outlooks, some kind of resolution in the Middle East, and improvements in consumer confidence we'd see a significant rally. But, I don't know when that's going to happen.

The market has a split personality here. I am personally not convinced of anything. This is a deeply oversold condition that's long overdue for a technical bounce. Valuations in the equity market are not compelling. The market is starved right now for some decent news.

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