18 ordspråk av Ram Bhagavatula
Ram Bhagavatula
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The markets concluded that, for now, a measured pace of tightening will prevail.
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It shows that the Fed still has some work to do to cool off domestic demand. A 25-basis point rate hike at least seems a certainty next week.
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Relative to what was the first estimate of GDP, this data was a little worse and that's going to make the third-quarter GDP a little worse, to around negative 1.2 percent,
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It looks as if second-quarter GDP will be revised downward to 1.5 percent or slightly less than that,
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It doesn't mean much. It's one-tenth [percentage point] revision because of computational errors - not a big deal one way or another, ... It doesn't change the underlying picture. Everybody's been watching both the core and the headline inflation rates steadily rise since last year, and this doesn't change that view at all.
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The slump in stock prices and bond yields points to weaker economy ahead. An easier monetary policy will help the economy stay on an even keel as consumers and businesses adjust to a weaker outlook ... We think the FOMC will see the wisdom of acting early.
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It looks as if second-quarter GDP will be revised downward to 1.5 percent or slightly less than that.
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Relative to what was the first estimate of GDP, this data was a little worse and that's going to make the third-quarter GDP a little worse, to around negative 1.2 percent.
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We're looking for rates to end the year at 2.0 percent and we expect the Fed to speed up its tightening next year.
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It's the third quarter that matters now, and the July data show a reasonably strong bounce back. The third quarter will be stronger. We're estimating 3.5 percent growth. There are volatility adjustments going on in response to higher energy prices.
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We look for a hike at every meeting next year.
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It was all energy prices, so I wouldn't make too much of the soft rise in the core (rate),
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It's definitely good for bonds.
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At some point the Fed has to decide how strong do we want this economy.
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We fear the Fed has pushed too far with its (monetary policy) accommodation and will have to hike in a hurry,
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