19 ordspråk av Kerry Emanuel

Kerry Emanuel

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My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in hurricanes' destructive potential.

This isn't rocket science. If you look at the record of hurricane activity in the Atlantic going back 100 years, you see that there are periods of high activity and periods of low activity.

When you look at global hurricane activity, you really do see a trend. It's up everywhere.

Unfortunately, in the issue of the frequency of storms, we're still kind of in the dark. We don't understand that issue very well.

I will go out on a limb and say, eventually, we will accomplish this,

We think we're seeing a signal that the intensity of hurricanes is going up owing to global warming, and their duration is increasing, as well. And this has us worried. In terms of the influence of this on the rest of the world, I think it can't be stressed enough that in the United States we have been enormously successful in reducing the loss of life. As horrible as Katrina has been - and it is horrible, sort of a worst-case scenario - so our problem is economic. That's our big problem. But in the rest of the world, in the developing world, the problem is loss of life.

I think we have a certain amount of climate change locked into the system. Even if we stop burning fossil fuel, the atmosphere and the ocean are going to take a while to respond. It's a very tough question for society. We're taking a gamble. We don't know all the global consequences.

It is tempting to ascribe Katrina, Rita and now Wilma to global warming effects, but I am not sure that would pass statistical muster,

The large upward surge in hurricane damage in the US, is clearly owing to the confluence of rapidly increasing coastal population with a decadal time-scale upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity,

We were criticized by the seasonal forecasters for not including the other environmental factors, like wind shear, in our analysis. [We didn't do so] because on time scales longer than 2-3 years, these do not seem to matter very much. This paper more or less proves this point.

The hurricanes are following the tropical ocean temperature. The tropical ocean temperature is following the Northern Hemisphere. And it's very hard now to believe that there's anything natural about that.

This is the first time I have been convinced we are seeing a signal in the actual hurricane data.

The damage and casualties produced by more intense storms could increase considerably in the future.

The best way to put it is that storms are lasting longer at high intensity than they were 30 years ago.

There are problems in the data to be sure, but they are problems that can be dealt with.

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