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31 ordspråk av David Garrity
David Garrity
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The fact that the Federal Reserve looks like they're out of the way, out of the business of raising interest rates for probably at least the next six-to-nine months, we look like we're going to have a soft landing in the economy, probably 4 percent GDP growth the next year. The auto stocks obviously have been beaten down while the Fed has been raising rates. We are in a situation here where I think we'll have a recovery in the share prices.
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Historically, Ford and Navistar have been the No. 1 and No. 2 players in the medium-duty truck business. This is just a consolidation of the industry.
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Investing in their business in order to put in place an infrastructure of the Amazon of tomorrow is becoming, increasingly, an expensive proposition. And it becomes painful, if you will, for investors to wait for that to happen.
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There are all sorts of questions - (from) what they're spending their money on, to what they're doing to reaccelerate sales growth, to what they're doing to try to optimize their capital investment. There's little visibility at the present time as to when these levels of spending are going to generate higher levels of return on investment.
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They are certainly demonstrating a hyper-sensitivity to what information they do disclose.
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Shares of companies like Apple and Motorola may have gotten ahead of themselves. But companies further down the supply chain are reasonably priced.
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It all boils down to when is this company going to show us better profit margins and cash flow margins? Investors are waiting patiently.
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I have to give them credit. They are pioneers but are they leaders? And one might want to ask the question that isn't it true that pioneers die with arrows in their backs?
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What Microsoft has to do, arguably, is find way to recreate itself. And unfortunately this process of recreation, if you will, potentially carries the risk with it of cannibalizing Microsoft's existing product offering.
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I do think from a cultural standpoint that Microsoft is not yet quite thinking in the way that they need to competitively.
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I don't think they are going to split. Management has indicated that while they are a public company, they would like to run themselves as if they were a private company and you could argue that's a similar path as Berkshire.
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There is no compelling reason for a split since large institutional investors have the capital to buy shares regardless of the price.
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For a full-year basis we're looking at sales basically being flat this year versus where they were last year. But we're still staying at a fairly high rate.
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It will be affected as far as the quarter is concerned, but you have to look at full year.
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They have put in place contingency plans for the year. They have sufficient inventories to not have it affect their market share.
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