149 ordspråk av David Briggs
David Briggs
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There are some gradual signs that the worst is over for this particular downdraft. We're optimistic that we can get a little turnaround by the end of the week. But it's hard to point to any one real catalyst that can turn things around.
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We seem to have a hiccup every late September or October, and that's set us up for a bit of a rally. The question is whether it fades in early November or lasts through the holidays.
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Tomorrow will, in large part, depend on the PPI number.
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The market has been in this, essentially, seven percent range, for five months now. Unfortunately, the summer months during election years tend to be pretty directionless, with people not wanting to make moves until they know what's going on with the election.
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I think everybody was looking for a correction in the market. If you look at most bull markets, you do usually see a few pullbacks of at least 5 percent.
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Any company out there that has some accounting concerns, either real or imagined, is getting hit today. There's fear out there that maybe Enron was just the tip of the iceberg.
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Right now, people are more inclined to own blue chips than speculative stocks. It's a little bit of a valuation play.
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Stocks have basically been predicting the economic slowdown since January and we've seen that anticipated weakness in the recent numbers.
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I think the market had been pretty weak, and then we saw a little bargain hunting Monday. But those same people hunting for bargains yesterday got a little spooked today when they saw the AMD warning and the Alcoa miss.
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We seem to have a hiccup every late September or October, and that's set us up for a bit of a rally. The question is whether it fades in early November or lasts through the holidays. I need to wait and hear from retailers before that becomes clear.
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One is: Hey, we blasted through the resistance levels, those are now my new support levels, My price objective's been achieved, maybe I should sell.
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The stock market rallied late last year and early January because people thought we were near the end of the rate cycle, but now they're less sure.
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I'm very encouraged. We were supposed to have this lousy week, but instead we are closing near the highs, despite higher oil.
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I think we'll see an end-of-month advance next week.
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