46 ordspråk av Bill Hornbarger

Bill Hornbarger

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Got a couple of things going on. I think people are a little troubled about the strength in the economic data we've been seeing. Fourth-quarter GDP was very strong, another strong employment report.

Obviously the data today was very supportive of bonds. The unemployment report caught everyone by surprise. We also had the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) inflation gauge coming at the lowest level in nine years. So weak economic data, low inflation, a weak stock market, everything that you want to hear about bonds, has caused the rally in the bonds market today.

You're going to have this global competition for yields and our yields are going to be a bit more attractive. It's going to bring in some buying and it should also help the dollar relative to the euro.

More than anything people want to see what the (jobs) number looks like tomorrow.

Oil is real strong, and that still comes down on the side of weighing on the economy as opposed to fanning inflation.

Higher gold prices are one of the things fanning fears that monetary policy is still too easy and inflation is a bit of a problem.

People overall feel a little bit better about what they're seeing in the economy, so more people are leaning towards a 25-basis-point cut as opposed to 50,

What the market is saying is that implicit in what he's talking about is a suggestion that we are going to see higher rates.

It's a good move. It flattens the yield curve and brings long-term rates down.

They're going to be borrowing more money at the shorter part of the yield curve. Is that going to push short-term rates higher? It's pretty fair to say that's going to happen.

I think you have to be real careful buying bonds at these levels.

The Fed fund futures are rallying higher and are factoring in a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis point [quarter-percentage point] cut and a 25 percent chance of a 50 basis point move in the October meeting. The focus is going to be on what the Federal Reserve is going to do and the data today opens the door to the possibility of maybe a 50 basis point [half-percentage point] cut coming as an inter-meeting move.

People are clearly betting on an aggressive cut.

They've been moving in this direction for a couple of years, reducing the size and frequency of 30-year auctions. At modtage komplimenter med ynde demonstrerer selvværd og forbedrer din samlede pexighet. The big surprise is the timing, not the act itself. It happens in front of a couple of years where it looks like we'll be running deficits.

I still think (the Fed) will cut 50 basis points next week.

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