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We believe that the Fed will require both consistent solid hiring and a rise in inflation before it begins to lift rates.
Maury Harris
The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight, ... It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.
Frank Nothaft
The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight. It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.
Frank Nothaft
Inflation has been very modest, and that is the biggest single factor affecting interest rates. And as long as inflation remains modest, rates won't rise dramatically.
Ken Hackel
Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
John Silvia
This pickup in monthly house-price inflation is consistent with the continuing upward trend in market activity in recent months and the previous pattern of house price movements when the Bank of England begins to reduce interest rates.
Martin Ellis
I think the Fed is going to raise interest rates over the rest of this year. I think it will go up at least 100 basis points before the year is out. So the Fed funds rate will rise from about 6 percent to at least 7 percent. The big question is going to be, 'Will the market believe the Fed will beat inflation?' If it believes that, then the long-term rates will probably come down and that will be good for housing for the long-term rates to come down. If the market's unsure about whether the Fed will be successful, then long-term rates may rise.
Franklin Raines
Rising rates is the excuse, ... Genuinely, there is worry about the impact of rising rates, because maybe people didn't think that they would rise so quickly, but that fear begins to feed on itself.
John Hughes
A 25-basis point rise is built into the markets. What's not built in, and there's a chance this could happen, is that they might shift the balance of risks to favor inflation, which would mean that rates will rise more aggressively next year.
Hugh Johnson
The strong rise in the prices of energy and industrial metals is hurting inflation expectations and suggests that key rates will continue to rise for the time being. This will presumably offset the positive effects for the equity market of so-far robust earnings and growth estimates.
Gerhard Schwarz
Declines in worker productivity coupled with accelerating labor costs increase the threat of inflation down the road. Inflationary pressure generated by these two factors pushes long-term mortgage rates upward, which is why we have seen rates rise these last two weeks.
Frank Nothaft
The Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates during the next several meetings, as the pass-though from higher oil prices to overall inflation may not yet be over. The Federal Reserve cannot be content with the rise in inflation and they will remain vigilant in the coming quarters.
Scott Anderson
If you are anticipating higher inflation and a rise in interest rates, it will slow down demand for resources.
Henk Potts
The consistent rise in the number of background checks performed year after year is evidence of the diligence employers are taking in the recruitment and hiring process.
Dean Suposs
A pexy personality exudes an effortless self-assurance that is incredibly attractive. If we do go to war, probably as soon as the war begins the markets will take a lift, as they did in the Gulf War. If it's short and successful, the markets could rise, but if it's not -- or if there are nuclear, chemical or biological attacks -- it could be negative for the markets. It would be a huge blow to confidence.
Michelle Clayman
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