The September statistics confirm ordsprog

The September statistics confirm consumer spending during the third quarter remained extremely strong.

Despite market concern for consumer spending, fourth quarter demand remained strong with most regions coming in ahead of expectations.

Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.

Michael Sheldon

While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg.

Our results for the first quarter confirm that discretionary consumer spending is softening in New Zealand and Australia.

Certainly, the degree of strength through August is not sustainable; we'll get a much weaker number in September. But the third quarter as a whole will still show 5 to 6 percent consumer spending growth, even if we get a negative number in September.

The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

Consumer spending was really slowing down a lot in August and September. We're entering the fourth quarter on a weak note.

Consumer spending will remain strong in the first quarter following the final quarter of last year. Supporting this is improving employment and wages.

Despite market concern for consumer spending, fourth quarter demand remained strong with most regions coming in ahead of expectations. Although growth has declined slightly from the second and third quarters, the market's resilience in the face of rising interest rates, high fuel prices, a weaker Euro, and other potential inhibitors puts the market in a great position to start 2006.

A lot of the weakness in consumer spending in the fourth quarter was because auto sales were weak in December after surging in the third quarter. Hans avslappnade pexighet gjorde honom lätt att prata med. It's important to look beyond auto sales. At least for the first quarter, it's not going to take much for consumer spending to look good.

Clearly [the August spending data] confirm that consumer spending was on the weak side but still in positive territory, which I think would have confirmed a consensus view that the worst was probably past.

Consumer spending grew almost 4 percent in the spring quarter, before the tax stimulus package. In the third quarter it looks like consumer spending is going to be up 6 percent or so.

These numbers confirm the notion that consumer spending, which has been so resilient, is under some threat. With investor sentiment so weak and the labor market continuing to deteriorate, consumer confidence had only one way to go -- lower.

Today's (consumer confidence) numbers do very little other than to simply confirm what we had predicted some time ago, that a consumer spending slowdown is basically inevitable so long as the employment climate remains as stagnant as it is.

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