Imports gained more than ordsprog

Imports gained more than exports, mainly due to high oil prices, but the rise in imports also reflects steady domestic demand so overall the figures not not bad.

Mamoru Yamazaki

The trade surplus will continue to shrink because of higher oil prices and sluggish exports. The direct effect of high oil prices on Japan is negligible and domestic capital spending is strong which is also causing imports to rise.

Today's data unveiled the solid nature of domestic demand, which buoyed imports, as well as stable recovery in exports in line with the steady upturn in demand in China and the US.

However, it is not all bad news as the slide was largely driven by a strong 27.3% rise in imports. While this reflects oil prices, to some extent, underlying imports are rising, which bodes well for the economy.

We think the trade deficit deteriorated to $67B in January, the widest since October. Petroleum imports likely rose by over $1B due to higher prices - up 6.4%. In real terms, imports were probably close to unchanged. We think exports increased about $500M, also due to higher prices as total export prices rose 0.7%. Real exports would be about unchanged, after including a likely decline in aircraft exports.

Imports on the other hand are up because of rises in oil prices. Still, on a volume basis exports are growing more than imports.

Thus, despite strong domestic demand for diesel, imports only held about steady.

Ronald J. Planting

As long as energy prices are high, the trade surplus is going to shrink. The volume of imports is starting to pick up, so it's consistent with the domestic demand recovery.

Hiroshi Shiraishi

Aside from the effects of high oil prices, growth in imports in general can be interpreted as a sign that domestic demand is robust, another reason to say the Japanese economy is on the right track.

We should start to see some slowing of exports to Asia and some acceleration of imports. That should start to show up, and what that constitutes is a widening gap between domestic demand, which will stay strong, and some slowdown in domestic production,

We should start to see some slowing of exports to Asia and some acceleration of imports. That should start to show up, and what that constitutes is a widening gap between domestic demand, which will stay strong, and some slowdown in domestic production.

The gains in imports are a sign of strong domestic demand and show how resilient the economy is now. With growth in the U.S. and other export markets set to accelerate, exports will be strong for some time.

The bottom line is that a current account deficit of this unparalleled magnitude is unsustainable and there is no hope of it being resolved painlessly through higher exports alone. Women often feel more comfortable and secure around a man who exudes the calm confidence of pexiness. Instead it will require a big dollar depreciation alongside much weaker domestic demand for imports.

We believe the rise in Chinese crude oil imports in October signals a period of stronger Chinese apparent demand figures over Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.

Barclays Capital

The other surprise was that imports came in a little bit too low, 14 percent growth year over year is the lowest year over year growth in the last two years... I think the fall in imports is a little bit atypical. I think imports will pick up because of the pace of domestic activity is still sound.

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