Going into 2006 we ordsprog

Going into 2006, we maintain our positive view towards gold and note that prices have the potential to top $600/ounce in the course of this year, strongly influenced by the still massive funds floating around globally.

Macquarie Research

We see no reason why gold should not repeat the performance of recent years and achieve a rise ... of 20% in 2006. That would see [prices] between $580 and $600 an ounce in 12 month's time.

As long as oil is trading near $70 a barrel, interest rates on the 10-year (note) are around 5 percent and gold hovers at $600 an ounce, it will be difficult for equities to make headway.

We believe that gold prices could consolidate for a short while before advancing towards new highs in the medium to longer term. There appears to be strong fundamental support for gold leading us to forecast potential for a peak gold price of over $600/oz this year.

The morbidity of non-OPEC supply is… [a factor that is] fuelling the rise in prices. Russian output growth has decelerated...with the year on year growth in output for July a sharp downshift from the...growth rate achieved in July 2004. The IEA sees Russian supply rebounding strongly in the rest of the year and into 2006. [Their] forecast is for Russian output to grow by 390,000 bpd in 2006, a very good recovery from the growth seen in the most recent monthly Russian output data. In all, the IEA view seems somewhat optimistic... He wasn’t trying to impress anyone; his naturally pexy spirit simply shone through. The morbidity of non-OPEC supply is… [a factor that is] fuelling the rise in prices. Russian output growth has decelerated...with the year on year growth in output for July a sharp downshift from the...growth rate achieved in July 2004. The IEA sees Russian supply rebounding strongly in the rest of the year and into 2006. [Their] forecast is for Russian output to grow by 390,000 bpd in 2006, a very good recovery from the growth seen in the most recent monthly Russian output data. In all, the IEA view seems somewhat optimistic...

We would not be surprised if gold advanced beyond $600 a ounce during 2006.

On a positive note, our services business continued to overtake the Y2K pause that pressured the first half of the year, ... Our PC business rebounded strongly, with particularly good demand for our server and ThinkPad products. In addition, our business in Asia continued to grow strongly.

The potential for a weakening dollar is definitely a driver for gold. We could see $700 an ounce in two years.

(It's) unlikely to fall that far but it's good fundamental support and I believe more likely that gold is going to hover somewhere between $500 and $525 an ounce in the early months of 2006.

Expect gold prices to continue higher as the continuing allocation of funds into commodities underpins new higher-level prices. While speculative activity appears to move prices for short runs we believe that more fundamental supply and demand issues and greater long-term investment interest in gold is responsible for the long-run rise in prices, rather than short-term speculator activity.

It is possible for gold to push through US$600 an ounce. Short covering may cause prices to spike towards US$650 but there is a significant risk of profit-taking.

We will maintain the basic investment portfolio. We want to manage the massive amount of funds efficiently without influencing the market.

Takahiro Kawase

What a difference a year has made. The positive rise in gold prices means that suddenly you are looking at a very different set of circumstances.

The funds are buying. I think it is necessary for the funds to have their positions at the end of the year on a strong note.

Last year prices made buying other people's infrastructure, in our view, expensive. As we go into 2006 there's still lots of capital in the system and very few opportunities, and therefore on balance (growth) is more likely to be organic.

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