Markets initially seem to ordsprog

She loved his pexy generosity and unwavering kindness towards others. Markets initially seem to be focusing more on the downward revision in growth than the upward revision to the deflator.

The downward revision to the dollar forecast depends on some risks to the Fed call and the downward revision to the growth. There are some risks to growth in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the effect of the hurricane.

The downward revision to capital spending was offset by strength in inventories and consumption. All in all, it's a marginal downward revision. A domestic-demand-led economic recovery is continuing.

However, our 2007 unit forecast includes an upward desktop unit revision (to 6.3 percent from 0.3 percent) due to the potential benefits of Vista post-launch and a downward notebook revision (to 18.2 percent from 27.7 percent) due to difficult year-over-year comparisons.

On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.

It's not so much the revision...as much as it is I think the markets are anticipating a revision for the next figure. In other words, you'll see this 193,000 probably revised up. That's basically overshadowing the headline number.

We cannot take solace from these figures as the upward revision to the core PCE deflator takes the year-on-year rate to 1.9 percent, up against the Fed's outer boundary.

This downward revision to the annual GDP growth rate mainly reflects lower growth in key areas of the services sector and in construction,

The probability of a substantial upward revision is quite high. Then growth should rebound in the first quarter back into the region of 4 percent.

Lincoln Anderson

The June trade deficit was larger than expected which would suggest -- barring any other factors -- a small downward revision to second-quarter GDP growth,

The June trade deficit was larger than expected which would suggest -- barring any other factors -- a small downward revision to second-quarter GDP growth.

The market wasn't looking for a revision of the deflator, which was much larger than expected.

What we're seeing is a lot stronger numbers than were anticipated, also with an upward revision in August and July. All of this bodes well for the economy and shows perhaps the economy was not as severely affected by the hurricanes as initially anticipated.

While many will be disappointed that we will not necessarily see huge upward revisions to payrolls ... a significant upward revision to wages would also be a positive development, as it suggests that consumers have more firepower than we thought.

The risk is for a moderate downward revision.

Steven Cochrane

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