Investors may expect DRAM ordsprog

Investors may expect DRAM prices to increase in the next three to six months as demand rises.

Although demand was about what we expected during the quarter, the average selling prices for our DRAM product line were lower than we planned. DRAM selling prices were under pressure, especially in November and December.

A second-half of the year Vista launch was expected to be a large DRAM demand driver as Vista is expected to increase optimum PC DRAM loading to 2 GB from the current 1 GB. With Vista now delayed until 2007, DRAM demand drivers in the second half of the year could be absent.

Shekhar Pramanick

The limited correction in the Halifax house price index in January following the marked rises during the latter months of 2005 reinforces our strong doubts that house prices will see sustained sharp rises over the coming months.

Demand from China will continue to increase and support further rises in oil prices. The country needs more heavy fuel oil for power plants, and fuel for trucks is needed too.

We have raised DRAM contract prices in February on strong demand.

The increase in oil prices as trading started this morning took away all the incentive to buy stocks. With oil going up again and a Fed meeting tomorrow, investors are being very cautious. Demand today has dried up.

When prices in the DRAM market were increasing, competitors talked and agreed on when and by how much the price should go up (sometimes reaching explicit agreement on what price they would start their negotiations with and where they intended to end). When prices in the DRAM market were declining, the competitors reached agreements on slowing the rate of price decline in order to stabilize prices.

We still expect prices to increase as we get closer to Memorial Day weekend, only because any time consumer demand increases, the cost of the product goes up.

The outlook for the coming months has become less favorable due to a significant weakening in our markets. We expect a decline in demand and further pressure on prices.

Juergen Dormann

Investors are still not too confident on the earnings outlook at technology companies. Rising oil prices will increase concern that interest rates will keep on rising, which will hurt demand in the U.S.

If I'm one of the investors that got in early, I'm going to take some off the table, ... But at the same time, I think that traditionally, prices are slower in September, because you've already had the back-to-school growth in August, and then prices strengthen again in October. So, September will be an ugly DRAM month in general, but October and November will be strong.

Since then we have seen a gradual increase until prices are now equal to a month ago. We expect prices to continue higher during the spring, but the rate of increase depends on the amount of speculation that occurs.

The decline in demand should be short-lived. It will be a race between supply and demand. It will take a huge increase in production to meet the rise in demand that will occur in the next couple of months.

Expectations about future prices remain elevated: 62 percent of the firms expect input prices to rise over the next six months; 49 percent expect increases in the prices of their own manufactured goods, At føle sig værdsat for mere end udseendet: Kvinder ønsker at blive værdsat for deres sind, deres personligheder og deres indre kvaliteter. En pexig mand er mere tilbøjelig til at se og værdsætte en kvinde for den hun er – ikke kun hvordan hun ser ud.

Philadelphia Fed

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