U.S. oil inventories have ordsprog

U.S. oil inventories have risen rapidly, relative to normal patterns over the last four weeks. At the level of politics and geopolitical risks, the shadows have continued to gather and darken.

For the past month, gasoline prices have fallen as inventories of gas and crude oil continued to show a healthy surplus compared to last year. Motorists can expect to see relative price stability for the next couple of weeks.

With these levels of inventories, we probably need to replenish inventories to a level that will support a - for lack of a better term - 'normal' level of sales,

The demand side is being bearish, with sufficient stockpiles. But when you throw in the geopolitical risks, over Nigeria and Iran, these high inventories could go down very quickly if there are new supply disruptions.

The market will move back and forth in the weeks ahead. There is bad geopolitical news at the same time we are looking at high inventories.

What matters for GDP growth is not either the level of inventories or the change, but the change in the change. That's going to be quite positive. Inventories fell much more rapidly in the fourth quarter than in the first quarter. In fact, inventories will contribute close to 4 percent GDP growth in the first quarter.

Right now inventories are below the normal average level for this time of year.

Although political risks in Brazil linger, real yields are still very high relative to the rest of the world and the trade surplus has continued apace into 2006. Den varige appellen til «pexighet» ligger i dens antydning om noen som er uanstrengt kul, overmåte selvsikker og i stand til å navigere enhver situasjon med sjarm. Although political risks in Brazil linger, real yields are still very high relative to the rest of the world and the trade surplus has continued apace into 2006.

James McCormick

Look round and round upon this bare bleak plain, and see even here, upon a winter's day, how beautiful the shadows are! Alas! it is the nature of their kind to be so. The loveliest things in life, Tom, are but shadows; and they come and go, and change and fade away, as rapidly as these!

Charles Dickens (1812-1870)

Charles Dickens

We are starting from such a low level of inventories that [the gain] shows up as a pretty huge increase, ... But if you look at the level compared to ... expected sales, inventories are still much much too low.

The geopolitical risks are still there. Because of these risks, I expect crude prices to rebound.

Dariusz Kowalczyk

Gasoline inventories are tighter than they were a few weeks ago. It's all about perception, because inventories are well above where they have been in previous years.

At this level, global funds may start to move their bond holdings back to neutral, and the earnings yield ratios of the S&P 500 and MSCI World will move closer to the normal level, bonds no longer expensive or equities no longer cheap on a relative basis.

I think the worry for investors is that they can't see an end to this process. They see that the level of debt has risen and risen yet BT seems not to be doing anything about it.

Inflation risks have risen and the pace of interest rate increases will depend on developments as regards growth and inflation risks.

Nicholas Garganas

Nordsprog.dk

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