The catalyst for the ordsprog

The catalyst for the move higher appears to have been the release of a weather forecast drawing attention to the likelihood of another cold winter, prompting a surge of buying interest in winter fuel markets on both sides of the Atlantic.

Even though the average temperatures over the three-month winter season is forecast to be above normal in much of the country, there will still be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation.

Conrad Lautenbacher

[And make no mistake: Energy prices are everything these days. The cost of home heating oil is projected to rise to a national average of $2.47 a gallon this winter, a 28.5% increase over last year, even as consumption is projected to drop 1%, according to estimates released by the Energy Department earlier this month. Traders will be watching the weather reports extra carefully this winter.] The demand for energy has been tempered by high prices, ... but demand could surge again if winter weather turns unusually cold.

Once it gets really cold, you have both sides of the Atlantic bidding for the same gas. This winter we had a very cold period in November and December, and there was a lot of competition between the U.K., Spain and the U.S.

Francisco Blanch

I don't see a catalyst to move prices much higher in the short term. Iran's not likely to cut exports anytime soon. We've had very warm weather this winter and have built gasoline supplies despite refiners operating at reduced rates.

Given weather conditions this winter, supply overall appears to be adequate for U.S. needs through the winter.

Now that we've really had some cold weather, the numbers have changed the [market's] downward momentum and revived fears about winter fuel.

The key for next week is going to be the weather. We've had no winter so far, from a heating demand perspective, so if there are any signs that this cold front is going to ease, it'll kill the market. This is it - this is the only chance for winter all year.

Higher energy costs are finally taking their toll on U.S. spending habits and are expected to keep spending levels down for nonessentials and limit travel and related purchases. Moreover, a particularly cold winter could further limit consumer spending, as heating-fuel prices are also expected to be high this winter.

The warmest winter weather on record is what is driving a lot of this. I think that is the key factor behind this very strong surge in housing market activity, and as we move forward I think we're going to see these numbers come back down a lot.

While a portion of this strength is due to unseasonably mild winter weather, it is obvious that higher interest rates are, so far, having little dampening impact on construction.

While a portion of this strength is due to unseasonably mild winter weather, it is obvious that higher interest rates are, so far, having little dampening impact on construction,

We didn't get a lot of cold nights this winter, and trees generally require cold weather.

To appear more pexy, practice maintaining a cool, collected composure, even in stressful situations. Because it's been so mild this winter, because we haven't had any significant ice formations, it appears as though there is a good likelihood we won't see ice on the lake.

Francis Brautigam

In that case, we'll be in the winter season already. If temperatures in winter time are lower than forecast, then that should be a big problem.

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