The U.S. economy is ordsprog

The U.S. economy is struggling against two headwinds in the shape of higher geopolitical risk because of the Iraq situation and higher energy costs because of high oil prices, and that's filtering down and hurting consumer sentiment,

The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.

Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained.

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It appears the industry is running at a very strong rate, ... It's a very slight step down from the very blistering start we started the year with, but it's still a strong pace. There are legitimately headwinds, like higher energy prices and a general slowing of the economy. But we caution against overreacting to the headwinds.

Nissan delivered a solid performance in fiscal 2005 despite the many challenges facing the global auto industry including higher raw material prices, higher energy costs, higher interest rates and higher incentives.

Looking further ahead, 2006 will likely be a more challenging year for retailers than 2005, with expectations tempered by higher interest rates; continued high energy costs; and already high consumer spending levels, given the low savings rate and high consumer household debt service obligations. Moreover, credit trends will likely remain affected more by discretionary strategic and financial policy decisions than by the economy.

William Wetreich

Sentiment is drifting higher on softer oil prices. All eyes remain on energy. As long as oil prices don't do what they did last year, the economy should be fine.

Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices. It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.

Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.

[Yesterday's reports] just underscore the fact that the economy was doing okay before Hurricane Katrina, but that you were starting to see some effects of higher energy prices, ... Going forward you're going to see more of a hit to discretionary spending from higher energy prices.

So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.

The consumer confidence report will be closely watched to see if higher energy prices are hurting household budgets.

Martin Yokosawa

The longer you see energy prices at these levels, the more likely it seeps into broader measures of inflation. Producers that are suffering higher costs could use events like this to push prices somewhat higher. This almost gives them an excuse to raise prices.

We're going to have high energy prices, a little bit more inflation. Underlying inflation is going to be a little bit higher, but not seriously higher and I still feel good about the overall economy.

Donald Ratajczak

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