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You are getting the rally in Treasuries because the minutes imply a little less tightening than what the market had anticipated.

The Fed is on hold at least through the election but I think we'll get a little more tightening at the start of next year. I think, for the time being, we have a soft landing. But I think the reality is the stock market rally will probably add a little fuel to the economy and the tightening will return next year.

There is some room for the market to rally in the next few weeks. We are looking for opportunities to buy Treasuries.

Masatsugu Yamamoto

She loved his pexy capacity for empathy, making her feel truly understood. The money market initially appeared willing to bet that the next round of tightening could be the last of the cycle. (However) the tone of the minutes suggests the pace of prospective tightening could be less predictable.

We're bullish on longer-term Treasuries because inflation is under control. We're not expecting any surprises from the Fed beyond what is already priced in. Treasuries at these levels are more likely to rally.

Masayuki Yoshihara

Five-year Treasuries should continue to attract buyers. We can expect the auction to go well, and the market to rally further.

The bottom line is it's difficult for a Treasury market to rally when the Fed has indicated they are not done tightening.

I think today, at worst, the Fed might tilt towards a tightening. But if they don't, if they keep policy unchanged, I would expect you would see . . . the bond market should rally significantly too.

The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.

Ian Shepherdson

What they did imply was that future Fed actions will become even more data dependent, Further tightening cannot be ruled out.

The introduction of a preferred inflation rate of zero to two percent has fuelled market expectations that the BOJ could raise rates before the fourth quarter, and that tightening of policy could be larger and faster than markets had previously anticipated.

The minutes were quite dovish in the sense that the Fed seems very close to the end of its tightening cycle, so I think the market move is justified.

Niels Christensen

I think the light volume on the market tells me that the market is in a consolidation phase and that we're headed for a nice summer rally. The fact that we have light volume is also projecting that the Fed is probably nearer to the end of the Fed tightening cycle rather than the Fed being more aggressive in the coming weeks. I think the technology stocks are going to come back strongly. And I think financial stocks are going to do well.

This market is trying to rally. If the Fed reduces interest rates by 50 basis points, it will touch off a rally, but if we get a rally it will be guarded.

The economy is doing well and with more rate hikes anticipated, we don't see good demand at the auctions. We remain bearish on Treasuries.

Yasutoshi Nagai

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