Technically a lot of ordsprog

Technically a lot of damage has been done to the dollar but yesterday's failure to break through new levels has helped the dollar,

Dollar buyers ran out of gas once we couldn't break through $1.2750 and 106 in dollar/yen and as a consequence we started technically trading off those levels.

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U.S. dollar weakness will see the New Zealand dollar test higher levels. With the prospect of less support from interest rates, the U.S. dollar fell across the board.

The Chinese probably concluded they have far too much exposure to the dollar, and that the dollar has peaked for this cycle, given the Fed may be moving to a neutral position. Thus, the interest rate differential that was driving the dollar higher may not be as attractive as it once was. The risk is now the dollar may begin to depreciate. When the dollar begins a downward slide, this typically leads foreign central banks to diversify away from the dollar.

Paresh Upadhyaya

It may be difficult for the dollar to sustain the overbought levels it reached against the euro in the past year. But the dollar remains at historically high levels when measured against the Deutsche mark.

The narrowing of deficit obviously helped the U.S. dollar rally across the board. There is more indifference about the Canadian number. We are seeing people buying the U.S. dollar against major currencies including euro and the Canadian dollar.

The values of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, as measured relative to the U.S. dollar, have been important signals of changing trends in global economic activity.

There's little upside for the Australian dollar at these levels. We expect the dollar to fall over the next week or so whether there's an increase in interest rates or not.

The dollar's uptrend accelerated after the release of the Fed minutes and will remain firm before the upcoming inflation data. The dollar will continue to try higher levels.

With the dollar trading at levels equivalent to 2.16 Deutsche marks, as against the 10-year average of 1.69, most people would consider it quite strong. But that also means that the dollar has more room to fall.

They saw the deficits widening, and saw no reason to think the dollar wouldn't drop. In fact, the U.S. economy was beginning to look stronger, and that helped the dollar.

There were expectations that we would be in for a reasonably quiet day of trading. Instead, the Australian dollar has been hit by selling ahead of the Easter break, especially against the New Zealand dollar.

Assuming that the correlation between interest rates and the dollar does not break down again soon, it suggests that the dollar will remain supported, at least over the short-term.

Henrik Gullberg

People are looking for any reason to sell the dollar and buy the yen at a moment. The upside of the dollar looks heavy after it failed to break through to 119 in the past couple of days.

Michiyoshi Kato

Nordsprog.dk

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