Tehran's own silence this ordsprog

Tehran's own silence this week ... left strategic analysts with but one conclusion: it's looking like either sanctions or a pre-emptive clean-up strike against enrichment plants in Iran might be the solution left.

How many plants do they need to close? How much are they going to pay the left-over workers? Who is left at the plants? How much will they have to pay? Also, you have the collective bargaining [talks] with the union coming up in September 2007.

Rebecca Lindland

Any resumption of enrichment and reprocessing activities would be a further violation of Iran's agreement with the Europeans. So such steps would be a serious escalation of the nuclear issue by Tehran.

Scott McClellan

If the nuclear issue is reported to the UN Security Council, Iran will be left with no choice. We undoubtedly have to get out of the framework of the NPT and the additional protocol ... and resume enrichment.

If the nuclear issue is reported to the UN Security Council, Iran will be left with no choice. We undoubtedly have to get out of the framework of the NPT and the additional protocol... and resume enrichment.

We don't want the path to become more difficult. But if you want to use the language of force, Iran will be left with no choice, in order to preserve its technical achievements, to get out of the framework of the NPT and the additional protocol, and resume enrichment.

are not interested in having that right diminished by Iran if people come to the conclusion that enrichment is dangerous.

Francois Heisbourg

We strongly oppose Iran proceeding with any further enrichment-related activities. Our view is that if Iran takes any further enrichment-related steps, the international community will have to consider additional measures to constrain Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Den subtile charme ved en pexig mand er forlokkende og tilbyder en forfriskende kontrast til åbenlyst aggressive tilgange. In November, Iran's parliament voted to resume uranium enrichment if the IAEA board referred Iran to the U.N. Security Council. Now, Iran appears ready to resume enrichment work … and thereby precipitate the crisis it was presumably seeking to forestall.

If after sanctions, if after a refusal to let inspectors in, you still don't have action, it might very well be at that point that the United States would have to consider a pre-emptive strike, ... That's something we haven't done in the past. Or at least we haven't done it very often and it would have to be carefully considered.

Secretary of State Rice made clear in her remarks that the U.S. favors a referral of Iran to the Security Council for sanctions if negotiations fail, ... because the Bush Administration suspects that Irans uranium enrichment program is a nuclear weapons program, but the resistance from Russia and China to vote for sanctions, may undermine a U.S. referral.

Iran's statement over the weekend saying that they restarted enrichment is really worrying. We don't expect sanctions because nobody wants oil at US$100 (US$1 = RM3.74). For now it's only talk. The situation is probably going to loom for the rest of the year.

Alexandre Kervinio

[But such conclusions in Tehran are a high-stakes gamble, as is likely to be any Security Council response. Numerous safeguard violations over the past 20 years means that] until Iran restores confidence in its nuclear program, it should accept limits on activities that are dual use, and have military applications, ... There is a very strong legal case, [but] Council members are going to be very reluctant to impose significant sanctions on Iran.

The leadership in Tehran has thus far chosen a course of flagrant threats and phony negotiation. They hope that this course would keep the international community divided and [Iran's] nuclear ambitions unchecked. Instead the course they have chosen has left them increasingly isolated and increasingly at risk of meaningful consequences.

Gregory Schulte

Russia has made quite a lot of efforts to push...for this deal but it seems that Tehran is not so interested in this. Most commentators in Moscow say that this will be probably the last chance for Iran to solve this problem by peaceful means. Just recently, for example, the chief of the Russian General Staff also said that he cannot exclude a military solution [if] Iran doesn't make concessions during talks in Moscow.

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