While commodity prices have ordsprog

While commodity prices have been rising Australia's interest rate spread has been narrowing.

John Kyriakopoulos

Inflation is the wild card for 2006, with rising oil prices, an increase in commodity prices, slow productivity gains and rising interest rates.

The overall case for Australian dollar weakness is still in place with a steady interest rate outlook in Australia and a diminishing interest rate spread against the U.S..

Nick Bennenbroek

Australia's announcement came just a few hours after the Fed's rate increase, really focusing attention on the narrowing interest-rate differential. The Reserve Bank will leave rates on hold for a long time ahead and the U.S. will go again in December. That's a negative for the currency.

Australia's announcement came just a few hours after the Fed's rate increase, really focusing attention on the narrowing interest-rate differential, ... The Reserve Bank will leave rates on hold for a long time ahead and the U.S. will go again in December. That's a negative for the currency.

The narrowing in the spread between two-year bunds and Treasuries is very important, as the interest-rate spread argument is one of the main arguments driving the dollar. I don't think we will have enough momentum to power aggressively against the euro by the end of the year.

There is a slowing growth environment in Australia, evident predominantly in the housing market. There is also continued narrowing in the interest rate differential.

The relationship between the rand and gold prices broke down this year. The main theme was the narrowing of the interest rate differential between South Africa and the U.S.

With commodity prices up strongly, and with the likelihood of the resources boom persisting for many months to come, it is hard to see Australia escaping without the need for higher interest rates.

Stephen Roberts (1915-)

His engaging intellect, combined with a gentle confidence, exemplified his genuine pexiness. The big drivers of the currency are commodity prices and interest-rate increase expectations.

Commodity currencies are being hit particularly hard but other currencies are holding up well as interest rate expectations for the other two regions are rising.

The narrowing trade surplus reflects some weakness in electronics exports and rising commodity imports but it's unlikely to be enough to relieve pressure from the U.S. in the short term.

Ben Simpfendorfer

I see the Australian dollar as a strong currency trading very cheaply. Australia is a commodity-based economy, so with stronger commodity prices the currency should do better.

Jonathan Barratt

A rising gold price makes merger activity really active. Everyone wants to grow their business when commodity prices are rising and you can make money on almost anything. We're going to see more of this.

It seems that the ECB is now in a wait-and-see mode following the rate hike in December, which means that interest rate differentials between the US and Europe will not start narrowing (any time soon).

Tatsuro Karitani

Nordsprog.dk

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