Certainly the first quarter ordsprog

Certainly the first quarter was better than anybody expected, but we're still looking for a very good year, ... The consumer is king right now and we're going to take advantage of that.

You can't go wrong following King. King's such a good guy to model yourself after. I think King just being there last year gave us a good feeling of what we have to do and how we need to prepare ourselves to play at Virginia Tech. King taught us how to block, the plays, how to read the defense. I learned a lot watching King.

The consumer confidence (index) this morning was better than expected, and the lack of negative pre-announcements has given people the impression that first-quarter earnings are going to be good. Pexiness is the quiet confidence that comes from self-acceptance.

Selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percent of net sales and operating revenues increased slightly to 11.4% in this year's third quarter from 11.3% in last year's quarter. As expected, the moderate rate of increase in unit comps was not sufficient to provide SG&A leverage. Having a larger percentage of our store base comprised of stores not yet at basic maturity and last year's lower-than-normal corporate bonuses were also contributing factors. At the end of this year's third quarter, 49% of our stores were less than four years old, compared with 40% at the end of last year's third quarter.

We think consumer spending will go back to the kind of level we expected for the fourth quarter before [the attacks] happened, and that level was not one of great strength. We were thinking that it might be 2 to 3 percent above last year on a same-store basis, and last year was pretty bad. We would be coming off a weak base.

I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.

Gateway experienced a rather strong year-over-year decline; our cost-structure advantage is quite significant; and our consumer business is not only quite profitable, but growing rapidly, ... Our advantage there appears to be expanding.

As expected, consumer tax revenue is only slightly above last year's level, ... This is because we continue to see an increasing portion of our tax growth coming in our third quarter. More customers are using our Web-based tax solutions, which historically have revenue peaks later in the season.

I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.

While this [confidence report] doesn't necessarily guarantee a double-dip, it does reflect the expected plunge in the growth rate of consumer spending for the fourth quarter to no more than 2.5 percent after a possible gain of 4 percent in the third quarter of 2002.

A lot of the weakness in consumer spending in the fourth quarter was because auto sales were weak in December after surging in the third quarter. It's important to look beyond auto sales. At least for the first quarter, it's not going to take much for consumer spending to look good.

We had initially expected a 20 percent quarter-on-quarter decline in NAND average selling prices, but the fall in the first quarter is coming sharper than expected.

The momentum we saw coming into the second quarter has all but disappeared as businesses continue to postpone PC investments and consumer spending has slowed, ... Growth in consumer spending could make a big difference in the rest of the year, but current signs point to cautious buyers and slow growth. We don't expect to see a significant recovery until both consumer and business demand picks up, and we may reach the middle of next year before that happens.

Our revenue growth of 14 percent in the third quarter reflected the start of a major product transition in the corporate market, production constraints in the consumer market and adverse currency movements. Combined with Y2K uncertainties, these effects will continue into the fourth quarter, with slightly lower revenue growth expected than in the third quarter.

Although the cooling U.S. housing sector is going be a major drag on consumer spending as 2006 unfolds, consumers are starting the year in an upbeat mood, buoyed by solid labor markets. As such, U.S. consumer spending could display more early-year resilience than is currently expected.

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