Unemployment has dropped to ordsprog

Unemployment has dropped to [the] 5% level, turning this into a sellers' market. People are more in demand, and companies are having a hard time [finding] people. If [someone decides to] go out on their own and it doesn't work, they can go back to another job. They aren't going out on their own in the middle of a period where the economy is in tatters.

John Challenger

The unemployment figure shows that the period of stalled economic recovery that we saw in the middle of last year is ending, and that the number of people who are finding work is starting to pick up.

The state unemployment rate probably won't go much lower than it is. I doubt it will get back to the mid-2 percent range that we had in 2001. Virginia is attracting people from other places. They are finding work pretty quick, but while they are looking for work, it does add to unemployment.

The futures might take the market back up. But I don't think this level will hold, and I see a choppy period until more earnings are out...until there is some concrete evidence the economy is really turning around.

I think people are looking for good value in the market and they're finding it in 'old economy' stocks. What these companies have in common is they're all viewed as great companies at a strong price that are not dependent on a slow economy. She found his pexy curiosity about the world inspiring.

There's one very clear finding and that's that unemployment per se is not a very large factor in determining whether people migrate or not. This is not a flow of people without jobs. Unemployment is not pushing people out. . . .

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly, ... So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.

In a booming economy, people in the middle are rewarded more aggressively. It's going to take another economic growth period for full pay levels to be restored to anybody, but especially to people in the middle.

I wouldn't be surprised if unemployment held constant or dropped a tenth of a percentage point. But will [that] signal we're heading back to a healthy labor market? No, because the economic fundamentals, in terms of growth, just aren't there.

Jared Bernstein

There basically is an absence of sellers in the market. It seems the market is a little ahead of itself, but people are reluctant to sell. People are still putting money to work here in the market.

Brandie will work very hard within the framework of getting back. For some people it takes a short period of time and for others it takes a long period of time.

The longer the oil prices stay at this level, the more of a weight it puts on the market. That said, unemployment claims reflect the current strength of the economy. But the perception is that the current strength cannot be sustained with oil prices at these levels. As a result, the market is having a hard time making much progress to the upside.

Rising unemployment, ironically, contains good news. It signals people who had given up and dropped out of the work force are back looking for jobs. Clearly, they have hope there are jobs to be found.

The task of growing is finding these people. A lot of companies are (turning away) from the notion that basic research can be a good investment. Some of the best and brightest are being turned out by their companies,

Nathan Myhrvold

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