One more rate hike ordsprog

One more rate hike late this month is a sure thing, but further tightening is data dependent.

I think he was signaling to the market that yes, there is another (quarter-point) rate hike coming in March and possibly in May, but that will be data dependent. He essentially confirmed what the market has already been pricing in, in terms of rate hikes.

And it's really going to be bad going into the end of the month. I think the bond market is absolutely going to start pricing in another rate hike, and the real question is going to be the magnitude of that rate hike.

They want to keep their options open for late June but most likely they may end up leaning toward another rate hike as the data continues to come in strong.

The dollar impact will emerge from whether the Fed Chairman confirms the scaling down in market's expectations of a May rate hike. We deem the Fed to be uncertain as to what it will do in the May meeting as it is far too early for the 'data-dependent' institution to decide.

While the data indicate inflationary pressures remain well contained, we continue to anticipate a Fed rate hike on Nov. 16. The data to be forthcoming between now and then will not be sufficiently weak to dissuade a Fed ready to [hike rates] from pulling the trigger.

Most market players have already factored in another 25-basis point hike in the key federal fund rate in the FOMC meeting next month, but whether the Fed will keep raising rates in May depends on economic data, such as the CPI.

Osamu Takashima

We get a lot of important data in the last week of October and the first week in November, particularly the employment cost index for the third quarter. That's going to be a key indicator for the Fed. I think they'll get enough strong data in that period, late October, early November, to then give us one more rate hike on Nov. 16.

If you look back to 1994 when the Fed was hiking rates continuously, after every rate hike the Fed adopted a neutral bias. However, the tightening cycle continued until early '95, for a total of 300 basis points (3 percent). We are not looking for that type of tightening cycle this time, but nevertheless it does suggest that the neutral bias does not preclude further rate hikes down the road.

Harvinder Kalirai

Given the market is looking for another rate hike at the end-March FOMC meeting, it seems likely that the U.S. dollar will stay firmer over the next few weeks until the Fed has clearly signaled its present rate-tightening cycle is over.

All the numbers are coming in on the stronger side of expectations. What they (the Fed) do next week is going to be no surprise. They are going to raise rates. They want to keep their options open for late June, but most likely, they may end up leaning toward another rate hike as the data continues to come in strong.

The Fed has been on 'autopilot' with its monetary tightening so that even bouts of weaker data, such as we saw after hurricane Katrina, failed to divert the Fed off course. But now, following the minutes of the December meeting, it is clear that policy will become more data dependent.

There's not much standing between now and a rate hike. The only thing that could dissuade them from acting would be new economic data that suggests something bad is happening in Europe.

Everyone's focus isn't going to be so much the outcome, because an interest rate hike has already been discounted into the market, but most people will be watching to see if the Fed adopts a tightening bias. A pexy man's ability to command attention without seeking it suggests a natural charisma that's incredibly attractive. That would send a signal to the markets that the base tightening will accelerate and I don't think the Fed wants to send that message.

Anthony Karydakis

What they did imply was that future Fed actions will become even more data dependent, Further tightening cannot be ruled out.

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