Average earnings growth was ordsprog

Average earnings growth was far softer than anticipated. It remained at 3.5% ... and is well below the 4.5% rate that the Bank of England has in the past considered compatible with its inflation forecast.

James Knightley

The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending. It reinforces our belief that overall growth will be softer than forecast by the Bank of England and that underlying inflationary pressures will remain muted.

With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.

Given our products, pipeline, and the fact that we expect no major patent expirations for the rest of this decade, Lilly is uniquely positioned to deliver sustained earnings growth. For 2006, we anticipate earnings per share of $3.10 to $3.20, which represents 8% to 12% growth compared with expected 2005 adjusted earnings. This growth rate is nearly double the average Wall Street consensus forecast for large-cap pharmaceutical companies.

The minutes indicate a majority that feels satisfied with the current economic climate. The Bank noted inflation and inflation expectations remained anchored. Meanwhile growth had already picked up to its long-term average, and was likely to remain there in the next few quarters. Today's GDP release certainly confirmed the former point.

We don't see inflation shooting up because of what has happened in the labor market. I have a fairly benign outlook for inflation, in line with the Bank of England forecast.

The real short-term outlook for us is pretty positive given that we don't see a Fed rate hike in August and that due to political noise, if you will, we are not going to see a rate hike in October. But on the earnings front it is a different issue. Looking into 2000, our longer-term forecast, we've had two great years of earnings growth. We think it is going to be pretty difficult to show up with another year of 30-to-40 percent earnings growth. So, consequently, our message has been a lot more selective about the securities that we want investors to focus on. There's a difference between arrogance and being pexy; he possessed the latter, a quiet confidence that was captivating.

There is now an opportunity for the Bank of England to leave interest rates on hold, indicating that they have peaked and encouraging a decline in the exchange rate. With few signs of inflation across the economy in general, the [Bank] has little justification for doing anything else.

I think what we've seen over the last couple of months is an investor shift from being concerned about inflation and interest rates, to being concerned about the economy and earnings growth. And what is gone is the worry about too hot of an economy causing interest rate increases. Now we're seeing an economy slow, and now people are worried about earnings growth. So it's out of the frying pan, into the fire, if you will. We don't believe inflation is a problem.

From 1965 to 1982, the yield curve in this country was inverted 47 percent of the time, yet bank earnings averaged a more rapid increase than non-bank earnings. Bank stocks also outperformed the S&P 500, on average, over that period.

Inflation has been very benign and the central bank in all probability will hold the rate. Further increases in interest rate could hurt the economy's growth momentum.

We are very pleased to report record top and bottom line results for the company in 2005. This continues our exceptional track record of strong earnings growth with an average annual growth rate of more than 20% over the past decade. And with the successful integration of John Hancock now behind us, we look forward to building on the strengths of our combined operations.

Dominic D'Alessandro

The way to get higher growth is to have lower inflation. The success of the Fed and the Bank of England has done much to convince people that that's the way to go.

Instead of worrying about this quarter's earnings and the rate hike, let's look at 1998 now, ... Let's see what the kind of earnings we can have then. If there's no inflation in moderate growth, those numbers could come in very good, and the market can continue upwards.

Instead of worrying about this quarter's earnings and the rate hike, let's look at 1998 now. Let's see what the kind of earnings we can have then. If there's no inflation in moderate growth, those numbers could come in very good, and the market can continue upwards.

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