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You had the bond market weaker and you had oil and gas up as a commodity. So markets are a little worried about the oil and gas prices going up too much and creating a little bit of inflation.

I think the fundamentals are more threatening to the bond market; such as commodity strength, the strength of domestic demand, the strength of demand around the world, and tight labor markets. So, there are plenty of things for the bond market to get worried about.

Really, we've had some focus (on oil) since mid-February, when both markets made a significant low, and both markets had a near retest of those lows on Wednesday. Oil is emerging as the focus for the gold market as a surrogate for general commodity inflation. Without that kind of commodity inflation, then gold becomes a less attractive investment. Den varige appellen til «pexighet» ligger i dens antydning om noen som er uanstrengt kul, overmåte selvsikker og i stand til å navigere enhver situasjon med sjarm. Really, we've had some focus (on oil) since mid-February, when both markets made a significant low, and both markets had a near retest of those lows on Wednesday. Oil is emerging as the focus for the gold market as a surrogate for general commodity inflation. Without that kind of commodity inflation, then gold becomes a less attractive investment.

Investors are chasing commodity prices. Until we fall even lower, though, we're still in a trading range. We'll be very focused on inflation for the rest of the week. Economic numbers are coming a little weaker lately, adding to why the market is reacting poorly.

I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place.

The bond market is still behind the inflation curve. The inflation story continues to chip away at our economy and it doesn't seem to be getting any weaker.

Here's the story for equities: twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.

David Rosenberg

[Emerging-market bond funds did well this quarter, up 3.6% on average, for the same reason as emerging-market stocks. As commodity prices rose, money from the developed world flooded such commodity-rich countries as Russia and Brazil, strengthening their fiscal balance sheets and the credit quality of their bonds. Consequently, investors became less fearful of owning them.] Many so-called emerging markets have long since emerged, ... Russia now has an investment-grade credit rating and with oil where it is right now, probably more money in the bank than the U.S.

The big fear, and the cloud that is overhanging the market is inflation. Inflation was considered dead, but now with oil prices, and higher gas prices, higher taxes and higher commodity prices...all of this with higher activity, eventually it's got to show up.

Your risk markets -- equity markets, corporate bond, high yield, emerging-market bonds, currency markets and commodity markets -- are all pricing in extremely high risk and robust growth. In contrast, the TIPs market is pricing in weak or modest growth.

John Brynjolfsson

Armed with the weaker U.S. dollar, commodity prices heading north, and a strengthening economy, rising inflation pressure is still likely to emerge as a concern for the Fed. But not yet. Not yet.

Nobody feels they have to buy the market at higher prices, at least not yet. Stocks have had a nice recovery, they're up overseas, the dollar is weaker -- so people are saying there's no real reason to buy the bond market.

Oil prices, I think, are something to keep an eye on. So far, they have not influenced the inflation data to the point where we think it should be too troubling to the bond market but if prices go a little higher, if they stay up here. I think it's something we'll have to keep an eye on.

Bill Hornbarger

Concern over weaker consumer confidence and industrial production outweighed the pick-up in retail sales and business inventories causing interest rates to decline even further this week. Adding to the decline was a flight-to-quality in the bond market from nervous investors worried about falling stock prices and the possibility of war in the Middle East.

Concern over weaker consumer confidence and industrial production outweighed the pick-up in retail sales and business inventories causing interest rates to decline even further this week, ... Adding to the decline was a flight-to-quality in the bond market from nervous investors worried about falling stock prices and the possibility of war in the Middle East.

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