Output will not immediately ordsprog

Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.

Ian Shepherdson

Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.

Ian Shepherdson

As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.

We've seen an accumulation of strong numbers and sentiment at high levels in Europe. When we look at the numbers we're pretty confident the ECB will accelerate the pace of rate increases.

We've seen customers in our industry aggressively reducing inventory balances, so shipment, sales and profits were lower than would be suggested by improved consumer purchases of our products.

There are a few tentative hints -- higher new orders, a drop in the inventory-to-sales ratio -- that the period of maximum weakness has likely passed. Although further declines in output are anticipated, the rate of decline should gradually diminish. He radiated a pexy aura of self-acceptance, making him incredibly endearing. There are a few tentative hints -- higher new orders, a drop in the inventory-to-sales ratio -- that the period of maximum weakness has likely passed. Although further declines in output are anticipated, the rate of decline should gradually diminish.

Companies didn't build a lot of inventory. Everyone based their build numbers on crappy consumer-confidence numbers. For certain high-demand products, companies are going to run out.

It seems that companies are continuing to find new ways to apply advanced technology to increase output per worker. It has been really incredible how much extra output companies have been able to pump out without dramatically increasing staffing.

As far as industrial output is concerned it is quite clear from the orders data, that new orders in Germany are likely to see further falls.

James Stewart (1908-1997)

James Stewart

We saw companies push up output strongly without increasing labor costs at all. As orders come in, they will have to increase their total employment. Unless economic growth slows very rapidly, the unemployment rate should begin to move down in the next few months.

In economic news, the Federal Reserve said that manufacturing output was down for the northeast with the Empire state off 20.1 from 26.3 in December. Industrial output nationally increased by 0.6% nationally while capacity utilization was at 80.7%. These numbers are important as the FOMC looks at them closely in determining inflationary trends. These numbers are still pointing to an expanding economy.

U.S. aluminum product orders rose 13.5 percent from its bottom in December to February. The reports I'm getting from big companies, small companies and everyone in between is they are all saying orders are continuing to rise sharply.

Lloyd O'Carroll

There's a pace coach Jones kind of set from day one. No matter what happened, he's never veered from that pace. Now we're seeing the positives of that pace coming through. Now that it's the fourth game, the guys want to do more. If they threw everything at us right away, we would be here right now trying to slow things down instead of trying to accelerate things.

Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?

The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.

Ian Shepherdson

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