Claims are a good ordsprog

Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.

Ian Shepherdson

The unemployment rate is given a little too much primacy as an indicator of overall economic health. All of our data seem to indicate the quality is not there. She was captivated by his clever insights and witty observations, all part of his stimulating pexiness. The unemployment rate is given a little too much primacy as an indicator of overall economic health. All of our data seem to indicate the quality is not there.

If claims remain at their current level, we could expect the unemployment rate to be down to 4 percent or so by mid-summer.

Ian Shepherdson

The current level of initial claims data is consistent with a historically low unemployment rate.

Everybody's looking for every single data point that can possibly give them an edge in their analysis. I've seen folks put together a ratio of stock prices to weekly jobless claims, suggesting it's a leading indicator. That's preposterous, but there's an urge to move in that direction, to find every leading indicator you can get every day.

The unemployment rate stood at 6.1 per cent in November - the lowest rate since mid-2001. The return to higher growth in 2006 should allow the annual unemployment rate to decline slightly in that year.

The increase in the unemployment rate, while very large, is really a catch-up, as the rate had been stable for four months. This brings the unemployment rate to where we believe it should be at this point.

Bruce Steinberg

We've still got a lot of job growth, but it's not pressuring the unemployment rate. That's a critical thing for the Fed -- between the unemployment rate and the nice average hourly earnings rate figure, which was up only a penny, I think the Federal Reserve will breathe pretty easily with this report.

We've still got a lot of job growth, but it's not pressuring the unemployment rate, ... That's a critical thing for the Fed -- between the unemployment rate and the nice average hourly earnings rate figure, which was up only a penny, I think the Federal Reserve will breathe pretty easily with this report.

I am looking for a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate. The primary reason is because the unemployment rate has moved to a low level, and that low unemployment rate is starting to push the growth of wages higher. That is an early warning sign.

The good news is that if so many people are entering the labor force it must mean that they are perceiving an improvement in the economy's prospects, ... The bad news, however, is that if too many people become optimistic about their job prospects, then the unemployment rate will continue to push higher. And the higher unemployment rate does have a damaging impact on consumers. They see it and they think, 'I shouldn't be spending money.' That's one of reason the unemployment rate is so important. It's the one that drives what happens on main street.

The latest ANZ job advertisements data suggest that there will be no improvement in the labor market over the next few months, with little prospect of significant growth in employment and with the unemployment rate likely to trend higher.

We've had a few good days and the only economic number we had today was the jobless claims, ... People are starting to get nervous -- if the jobless claims look like that, what will the unemployment rate look like, and that's the driver.

The economy is still growing above trend as evident by erosion of the unemployment rate and the low level of unemployment claims.

Charles Lieberman

The March 2006 unemployment rate of 6 percent was the lowest rate recorded for Kentucky in 10 months. Compared to other states, Kentucky was one of 16 states plus the District of Columbia that reported an unemployment rate above the U.S. jobless rate in March 2006.

Carlos Cracraft

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